2023 lows hit as Bitcoin volatility declines, Glassnode says

• $81,000 was surpassed by Bitcoin. The Fed left rates at 3.75%-4.00%, with the vote split 10-2.
• $27 million in BTC realised losses accompanied its October 24 decline, down from $630 million at the August low and suggesting reduced loss-driven selling.
• $2.6 billion in average volume put Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets ahead of its Bitcoin perpetual futures at $2.4 billion, suggesting traders are likely turning towards stocks.

$81,000 was breached by Bitcoin (BTC) on Wednesday. A 10–2 vote saw the Federal Reserve (Fed) leave interest rates at 3.75%–4.00%. The policy hold coincided with the leading cryptocurrency’s realised volatility dropping to levels not seen since the summer of 2023.

2023 volatility levels return for Bitcoin as realised losses suggest selling pressure is easing

Roughly 25% was the reading for Bitcoin’s one-month realised volatility, Glassnode said in its Wednesday report. This was below the usual range for the past year. Lower volatility has been recorded on only about 5% of days since 2015.

Sharp price changes followed the previous two volatility lows, according to Glassnode. An 18% reading in August 2023 came before a steep Bitcoin decline. By contrast, the fall in volatility to 22% in August 2026 was followed by a price rise.

Ahead of the Fed announcement, Glassnode cautioned that persistently subdued volatility could expose Bitcoin to a substantial price move after the policy decision.

Realised losses have also contracted as volatility has eased. Investors booked smaller losses during recent market pullbacks. This suggests that selling pressure from holders exiting at a loss has diminished considerably relative to earlier downturns.

At the August low, daily net realised losses were roughly $630 million, according to Glassnode. The largest daily net loss during Bitcoin’s October 24 retreat was $27 million.

After the October 24 sell-off, bids at $80,000 failed to reappear on Binance’s spot order book. Against that backdrop, Glassnode highlighted 78,000-79,000 as Bitcoin’s next significant support zone.

Buy orders at $80,000 stood at just $3.4 million. Between $78,000 and $79,000, however, bids amounted to approximately $42 million, compared with $24 million in mid-October.

Accumulation by short-term holders (STH) around $77,000 could provide another support level should prices fall further, the report found. Another cluster of coins bought around $64,000 represents purchases close to the 2026 lows.

$2.6 billion in HIP-3 volume signals speculative shift towards stocks

On Hyperliquid, daily turnover in stock and commodity perpetual futures has overtaken Bitcoin perpetual futures. The activity points to speculative trading extending beyond crypto.

Over the past week, daily trading volume in Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets averaged approximately $2.6 billion, Glassnode reported. These markets offer perpetual futures contracts for speculation on stocks, indices and commodities. Bitcoin perpetual futures on the same platform averaged about $2.4 billion a day, below the HIP-3 total.

HIP-3 activity has recovered following a volume decline after August’s market squeeze. At the beginning of that month, its trading volume exceeded Bitcoin perpetual volume by more than three times. By late August, it had dropped to roughly half the Bitcoin level.

Among the busiest individual markets were SK Hynix, the S&P 500, a technology index and Crude Oil.

The report stated: “Should this volume keep growing while Bitcoin perpetual volume stays flat, it would show speculative money still favoring stocks,”