British Pound little changed amid US jobs strength and looming election risks

0.10% gain for GBP/USD despite robust US labour market figures.
7.5 million US job openings reported; Factory Orders climb 1.8%.
Sterling draws support from BoE rate rise expectations before US midterm elections.

GBP/USD is up a modest 0.10%. Sterling is holding steady against the US Dollar as investors await the US midterm election results, with the pair trading around 1.3420. US factory figures and a softer US JOLTS report supported the Greenback, helping it pare earlier losses.

GBP/USD gains capped by stronger US data and geopolitical risks

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

September job openings increased to 7.5 million from 7.19 million, according to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics’ Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The corresponding rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%. Hiring stood at 3.4%, compared with 3.3% previously, while total separations held at 3.3%.

An increase in hiring alongside higher vacancies made the report encouraging. Separately, US Census Bureau figures showed September Factory Orders growth accelerated to 1.8% MoM from 0.3%.

Risks of geopolitical escalation are also restraining GBP/USD gains. Al Araby reported that Washington and Tehran had approved a draft MOU, but Iran disputed the claim. According to IRIB, Iran rejects reports that it is nearing an agreement with the US.

Attention is now shifting to the US midterm elections. Polymarket data puts the Democrats’ chances of controlling the House of Representatives at 95%, and their probability of winning a US Senate majority at 78%. Investors remain uneasy about both the outcome and the White House’s reaction to the results.

At 101.81, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is unchanged. The index tracks the Greenback against a basket of six currencies.

Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision is the focus for UK investors. Expectations point to the first interest rate increase since August 2023. Money markets price in three further rate rises for 2027, according to Prime Terminal data.

Implied BoE forward rates - Source: Prime Terminal

October US employment and services data ahead

No UK releases are scheduled. US traders will focus on October’s ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: 1.3371 support underpins technical bias

Chart Analysis GBP/USD — Daily GBP/USD chart

GBP/USD stands at 1.3412 on the daily chart. A modestly bullish near-term bias persists, with spot above both the latest 50/100/200-day simple moving average cluster at 1.3371 and the nearby ascending support trend line around 1.3360. This points to underlying buying interest on dips. At 58.5, the Relative Strength Index (14) remains positive but below overbought territory, indicating supportive upside momentum without signs of overstretching.

The first upside resistance lies around the convergence of descending trend-line reactions. Recent rejection levels are 1.3508 and 1.3544, followed by a higher hurdle at 1.3606 from the more recent support trend-line break. Below spot, the reclaimed moving average band around 1.3371 provides initial support, backed by the ascending structural trend line at 1.3360. Holding consistently above these levels would preserve the bullish bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling: Today’s Currency Performance

Today’s percentage moves in the British Pound (GBP) against the major currencies listed appear in the table below. The Swiss Franc was the currency against which the British Pound performed most strongly.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.15%	0.00%	0.41%	0.04%	0.25%	0.07%	0.42%
EUR	-0.15%		-0.14%	0.25%	-0.11%	0.11%	-0.08%	0.27%
GBP	-0.00%	0.14%		0.36%	0.04%	0.25%	0.05%	0.42%
JPY	-0.41%	-0.25%	-0.36%		-0.35%	-0.15%	-0.33%	0.03%
CAD	-0.04%	0.11%	-0.04%	0.35%		0.21%	0.02%	0.38%
AUD	-0.25%	-0.11%	-0.25%	0.15%	-0.21%		-0.18%	0.17%
NZD	-0.07%	0.08%	-0.05%	0.33%	-0.02%	0.18%		0.36%
CHF	-0.42%	-0.27%	-0.42%	-0.03%	-0.38%	-0.17%	-0.36%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the British Pound on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for GBP (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.