1.3400: British Pound rallies as UK jobs exceed expectations and hopes for Iran deal strengthen

0.70% gain takes GBP/USD towards 1.3400 as Dollar selling intensifies.
102K UK jobs added, far exceeding the 5.1K forecast.
93% odds of a November BoE hike accompany stronger sentiment on a reported US-Iran agreement.

The Pound Sterling gains about 0.70%. Firm UK labour market figures support the advance, alongside news that the US and Iran appear to have reached an agreement, according to Israel’s Channel 12 News. Having recovered from its daily low of 1.3300, GBP/USD trades near 1.3400.

Sterling gains as strong UK jobs data and reported US-Iran progress weigh on the Dollar

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

A proposal put to senior Iranian officials by the Pakistani army chief has already secured US approval and preliminary agreement from Tehran, Israel’s Channel 12 News reported.

Under the arrangement, Qatar would release frozen funds and transfer $6 billion US Dollars to Iran, according to Israel’s Channel 12 News. Tehran would agree to an International Atomic Energy Agency visit to its nuclear facilities, conducted in secret without a public announcement.

Following the report, the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.32% to 101.66. The index measures the Greenback against six currencies.

Separately, September US Pending Home Sales fell 7.3% to a record low, undershooting forecasts of -0.5%. Explaining the decline, the NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun said, “Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates.”

September brought 102K additions to the UK workforce, well above the 5.1K forecast and August’s 67K jobs gain. The Unemployment Rate consequently declined, while Average Earnings Including Bonus eased in the three months to August.

According to Prime Terminal, money markets assigned a 93% probability to a Bank of England rate increase at the November meeting.

September inflation and Retail Sales figures are next on the UK economic calendar. No US releases are scheduled for October 21. Activity picks up on October 22 with Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 17.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical barriers in focus

Chart Analysis GBP/USD — GBP/USD daily price chart

At 1.3375 on the daily chart, GBP/USD remains below two nearby resistance zones: the descending trend line near 1.3407 and the cluster of 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) around 1.3411. This leaves the bias mildly bearish. The Relative Strength Index (14) has entered positive territory at 56.3, suggesting momentum is improving. With those overhead barriers still containing the price, however, the rebound looks corrective within a broader pattern of consolidation with a downside bias.

The descending trend line around 1.3407 provides the first upside hurdle, just ahead of the three-SMA resistance zone near 1.3411. A decisive daily close above that zone would create scope for a move towards 1.3616 and 1.3801, where former rising support lines now act as resistance. Initial downside support lies near 1.3273, the previous downtrend breakout level. Slipping back below this pivot would leave the recent advance vulnerable to a deeper retracement and restore bearish pressure on GBP/USD.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling: Today's price performance

Against the major currencies listed below, the British Pound (GBP) recorded its strongest performance versus the US Dollar today. The table sets out its percentage change against each currency.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.23%	-0.53%	-0.27%	-0.42%	-0.33%	-0.39%	-0.18%
EUR	0.23%		-0.33%	-0.02%	-0.19%	-0.08%	-0.16%	0.05%
GBP	0.53%	0.33%		0.32%	0.14%	0.27%	0.16%	0.39%
JPY	0.27%	0.02%	-0.32%		-0.19%	-0.07%	-0.16%	0.05%
CAD	0.42%	0.19%	-0.14%	0.19%		0.11%	0.04%	0.24%
AUD	0.33%	0.08%	-0.27%	0.07%	-0.11%		-0.08%	0.15%
NZD	0.39%	0.16%	-0.16%	0.16%	-0.04%	0.08%		0.22%
CHF	0.18%	-0.05%	-0.39%	-0.05%	-0.24%	-0.15%	-0.22%

Percentage movements between the major currencies appear in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the British Pound on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar, for instance, gives the percentage change for GBP (base)/USD (quote) in the intersecting cell.