1.3300 holds as British Pound weakens on renewed USD demand ahead of key US data

Renewed USD demand brings fresh selling pressure to GBP/USD in Asian trading.
The dollar finds support as oil-related inflation risks sustain bets on a Fed rate increase.
With key US economic releases approaching, geopolitical uncertainty adds to USD support.

GBP/USD has slipped to 1.3300 in the past hour. Broad US Dollar (USD) strength has brought renewed selling during Thursday's Asian session, interrupting the previous day's rebound from the 1.3275-1.3270 area, a nearly two-week low. However, limited follow-through selling calls for caution among bears.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Traders now price in around an 80% probability of another US interest rate increase in December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Elevated energy prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, sustaining expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates again this year. Against that backdrop, the USD is recovering from the previous day's post-FOMC decline. Lingering geopolitical uncertainty also supports demand for the safe-haven dollar, adding some downward pressure to GBP/USD.

Efforts to revive Middle East peace talks reportedly include a letter from US Vice President JD Vance to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. The initiative comes as US President Donald Trump threatens renewed military action in the coming weeks. According to The Wall Street Journal, US officials have advised several Middle East countries and regional allies to prepare for a possible short, intense military campaign against Iran after the 3 November midterm elections.

Qatar-led regional mediators are also seeking to reopen US-Iran negotiations to avert a return to war. For USD bulls, however, fresh positions may depend on clearer signals about the Fed's policy trajectory beyond December. Attention therefore turns to the Advance US Q3 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will tighten monetary policy could, in the meantime, cushion GBP/USD against further losses.

4-hour GBP/USD Chart

Technical Outlook

Trading just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, GBP/USD retains a mildly positive near-term outlook. The pair remains above both the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the mid-range Fibonacci support levels. This positioning suggests a constructive bias as prices test the upper reaches of the recent recovery range.

At 1.3352, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement presents the first resistance, followed by the cycle high reference point near 1.3417. Initial support lies at 1.3311, the 38.2% retracement. Below that, the 50.0% level at 1.3278 precedes further Fibonacci support at 1.3246 and 1.3199. The more distant structural base is around 1.3140.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Performance Today

Against the major currencies listed below, the US Dollar (USD) recorded its strongest performance versus the Euro today. The table presents its percentage changes against each currency.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.07%	0.02%	0.03%	-0.10%	-0.10%	-0.02%	0.05%
EUR	-0.07%		-0.05%	-0.04%	-0.19%	-0.18%	-0.10%	-0.03%
GBP	-0.02%	0.05%		0.00%	-0.14%	-0.13%	-0.05%	0.01%
JPY	-0.03%	0.04%	0.00%		-0.14%	-0.13%	-0.07%	0.00%
CAD	0.10%	0.19%	0.14%	0.14%		0.01%	0.09%	0.16%
AUD	0.10%	0.18%	0.13%	0.13%	-0.01%		0.09%	0.14%
NZD	0.02%	0.10%	0.05%	0.07%	-0.09%	-0.09%		0.10%
CHF	-0.05%	0.03%	-0.01%	-0.01%	-0.16%	-0.14%	-0.10%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the left and following that row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the intersecting cell.