Crypto Today: Hawkish Fed tone dampens sentiment as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP retreat

• $80,000 is Bitcoin’s level after Thursday’s decline. The Fed leaves rates unchanged but maintains its hawkish stance.
• $2,316 marks Ethereum’s key 200-day EMA. The cryptocurrency is correcting towards it, with a close below potentially setting off a deeper pullback.
• $1.300 support is under pressure as XRP trades below it. Failure to hold the level leaves the cryptocurrency vulnerable to further losses.

$80,000 is in focus as Bitcoin (BTC) retreats on Thursday. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) are also pulling back as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish message after leaving interest rates unchanged dampens sentiment across the cryptocurrency market. While BTC approaches $80,000, ETH nears its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,316. XRP is below $1.300 support, leaving all three exposed to additional losses.

BTC, ETH and XRP under pressure after hawkish Fed rate hold

At the end of its two-day October policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed left its policy rate at 3.75%-4.00%. Officials were not unanimous: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack were the two seeking a 25-basis-point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh said incoming information would guide the Fed’s assessment of whether further action is necessary.

At his press conference, Warsh said officials have “made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require, and we have shown our willingness to act.”

“It’s our responsibility to get inflation down,” Warsh stressed, adding: “That’s the reason the FOMC’s discussion over the last couple of days focused mainly on the price stability side of our remit,”

Although unchanged rates were already priced in, the hawkish forward guidance and inflation concerns reinforce market caution and pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The CME FedWatch Tool put the probability of Fed tightening at the December 9 meeting at 79.6% on Thursday, slightly above Tuesday’s 78.33%. This tilt towards tighter monetary policy offers modest support to safe-haven assets: the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5% and the US Dollar Index (DXY) above $102. Risk assets remain under pressure, with BTC, ETH and XRP falling to $80,000, $2,300 and $1.300, respectively, on Thursday.

Thursday’s stronger-than-forecast economic growth and persistent inflation figures are also underpinning the USD and restraining the wider crypto market.

September’s annual US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation reached 3.6% YoY, up from 3.4% in August and in line with market forecasts. Monthly PCE increased to 0.5% from 0.3% previously. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, core PCE rose 3.1% year on year and 0.3% month on month. On the same day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) first estimate showed US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanding at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter. That exceeded the 3.2% market forecast and followed second-quarter growth of 2.2%.

Bitcoin ETF inflows contrast with Ethereum withdrawals and subdued XRP demand

Demand for digital asset investment products has been uneven this week. On Wednesday, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $137.33 million, according to SoSoValue, marking the third consecutive week of inflows. Daily inflows so far point to modest institutional buying. However, their smaller scale relative to last week suggests investors remain cautious.

Institutional appetite for ETH, by contrast, appeared weaker. Wednesday brought modest outflows of $21.41 million from spot Ethereum ETFs, SoSoValue reported, extending withdrawals to a third consecutive day. 

For XRP, subdued institutional demand on Tuesday and Wednesday followed a modest $3.61 million outflow on Monday. The pattern signals waning trader demand and interest.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Price loses strength

At $80,227 on Thursday, Bitcoin remains above its 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $77,866 and $76,435, respectively. Its 50-day EMA at $80,802, however, limits the upside.

The near-term outlook is therefore neutral to bearish. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 43 points to diminishing upside momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also remains negative, below its zero line, signalling reduced bullish pressure. Nevertheless, the broader uptrend retains its foundation while price holds above the longer-term EMAs.

The 50-day EMA near $80,802 provides the nearest resistance. Beyond it lies the horizontal level at $85,000, where earlier selling interest could return.

Initial significant support comes from the 100-day EMA around $77,866. The 200-day EMA near $76,435 provides a deeper structural floor. A daily close beneath these levels would strengthen the bearish outlook and leave scope for a more substantial correction.

Ethereum and XRP technical outlook: Bearish ETH bias, XRP below support

At $2,320, Ethereum retains a bearish near-term outlook. It has edged below the 100-day EMA at $2,361 and the 50-day EMA at $2,445, while holding on to 200-day EMA support at $2,316. ETH  is also back beneath the broken ascending trendline reference near $2,360, with the horizontal $2,400 barrier continuing to cap gains. An RSI around 35 remains subdued, while the MACD line is negative but improving. Together, they indicate weak but stabilising downside momentum, not a decisive bullish reversal.

The current price zone offers the nearest support, underpinned by the 200-day EMA at $2,316. Further down, the horizontal level around $1,823 serves as a deeper structural floor.

The former trendline and short-term pivot near $2,360 form initial resistance, ahead of the horizontal ceiling at $2,400. A sustained move above both would bring the 50-day EMA at $2,445 into view, followed by the higher resistance zone around $2,770.

Trading at $1.292, XRP remains bearish in the near term, with spot prices beneath every key Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Overhead resistance is layered across the 100-day EMA at $1.332, the 50-day EMA at $1.357 and the 200-day EMA at $1.371. Rallies therefore remain vulnerable while XRP stays below this cluster.

Momentum indicators offer a mixed picture. At 40, the RSI is weak and below neutral. The MACD, meanwhile, has only just moved marginally into positive territory, suggesting tentative stabilisation rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.

The nearby horizontal level of $1.300 presents the first upside barrier, followed by the 100-day EMA around $1.332 and the 50-day EMA at $1.357. The 200-day EMA at $1.371 adds to the broader corrective ceiling, before higher resistance at $1.540 and $1.900. The current dataset identifies no meaningful support beneath the prevailing price. Any extension lower would thus expose XRP to renewed selling until fresh demand zones appear on the chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)