177.50: EUR/JPY Price Forecast as Pair Holds Near Nine-Day EMA

175.70, the 12-month low, is the main support EUR/JPY may approach on further weakness.
With the 14-day Relative Strength Index close to 41, momentum appears muted.
At 177.52, the nine-day EMA marks the first resistance level.

EUR/JPY trades near 177.50 in Thursday’s Asian session. The cross is declining for a second consecutive day. On the daily chart, price remains inside a descending channel, pointing to a persistent bearish bias.

Trading below both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), EUR/JPY retains a bearish short-term outlook. These averages now provide successive layers of overhead resistance. A reading near 41 on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals muted momentum. This supports the view that the cross is undergoing corrective consolidation within a wider downtrend, rather than staging a strong recovery.

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A decline in EUR/JPY could bring the first support at 175.70 into view, the 12-month low recorded in November 2025. The descending channel’s lower boundary, around 175.10, comes next. A break below this support confluence would clear the way for the cross to test the area near the 15-month low of 169.72.

Resistance begins at the nine-day EMA of 177.52. Above it sits the descending channel’s upper boundary near 178.80, followed by the 50-day EMA at 179.74. Clearing this resistance confluence would trigger a bullish reversal, supporting a move in EUR/JPY towards the area around its all-time high of 187.95, set on 17 April.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: Daily Technical Chart

AI-led inflation risks: Himino keeps Yen bulls on watch

8.2 is the FXS Speechtracker score for this speech. The reading matches Himino’s historic average exactly, reflecting a consistently firm tone. Strong AI-related demand is boosting capital expenditure and exports as underlying inflation approaches the 2% target. Himino’s emphasis on underlying inflation likely aligning with the Bank of Japan goal, together with rising medium- and long-term inflation expectations, strengthens the view that Japan’s disinflation phase is largely over.

Accommodative financial conditions, low real interest rates and rapid growth in bank lending are central to Himino’s remarks. Together, these factors intensify concerns about upside inflation risks. His warning that delayed policy adjustments could create inflation risks and harm the economy is accompanied by a call for appropriate monetary policy to deliver stable prices and sustainable growth. This signals a clear hawkish bias that should underpin the Yen through expectations of gradual policy normalisation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Performance Today

Against the major currencies listed below, the Euro (EUR) recorded its weakest performance versus the Swiss Franc. The table presents today’s percentage changes.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.17%	-0.07%	-0.22%	-0.10%	0.12%	0.12%	-0.20%
EUR	0.17%		0.09%	-0.05%	0.07%	0.27%	0.28%	-0.06%
GBP	0.07%	-0.09%		-0.13%	-0.04%	0.19%	0.17%	-0.14%
JPY	0.22%	0.05%	0.13%		0.10%	0.33%	0.30%	0.00%
CAD	0.10%	-0.07%	0.04%	-0.10%		0.23%	0.25%	-0.09%
AUD	-0.12%	-0.27%	-0.19%	-0.33%	-0.23%		-0.02%	-0.32%
NZD	-0.12%	-0.28%	-0.17%	-0.30%	-0.25%	0.02%		-0.29%
CHF	0.20%	0.06%	0.14%	-0.00%	0.09%	0.32%	0.29%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.