EUR/USD stays under pressure as uneven Eurozone data and hawkish Fed weigh

• 1.1045 marks the 19-month low just below EUR/USD. The pair is heading for a three-week decline.
• Q3 Eurozone growth exceeded forecasts, although employment gains stayed subdued and Trade Balance figures fell short of expectations.
• Bets on a 50-basis-point Fed rate increase in December gather pace, driving broad-based US Dollar gains.

1.1045 marks the 19-month low, with EUR/USD trading just a few pips above it. The pair is heading for a three-week losing streak as the Euro (EUR) retreats further on Friday. Mixed Eurozone economic releases have been insufficient to counter widespread US Dollar (USD) strength. US Treasury yields are climbing sharply on speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver a large rate increase next month.

Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures published earlier on Friday put third-quarter Eurozone growth at 0.6%, an acceleration from the previous pace. Annual growth held at 1.3%, matching the previous quarter.

Weaker-than-forecast employment growth and disappointing trade figures have nevertheless restrained investor optimism. The preliminary Q3 Employment Change reading showed an increase of 0.1%, matching Q2's 0.1% gain rather than accelerating to the expected 0.2%.

September's Trade Balance, meanwhile, recorded a deficit of EUR 10.3 billion. Although narrower than August's EUR 16.6 billion gap, the shortfall was more than twice the EUR 4.5 billion anticipated by the market.

Dollar rallies as Fed rate-hike bets lift short-end yields

A sharp rebound in US Dollar yields continues to support demand for the currency. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have signalled that an outsized rate increase is possible at the December meeting.

A sharp reassessment of the Fed's near-term policy outlook has been closely linked to the Dollar's advance, ING analysts note: “This week has seen a powerful, macro-driven rally in the Dollar,”

ING experts highlight the speed of the shift in rate expectations supporting the Dollar: “Short-dated US yields are close to 40bp higher since Tuesday morning, when the Fed's Christopher Waller mused over the need for a 50bp hike in December,” They add that “the market has since adopted the view that back-to-back December and January hikes look likely,”

October's Producer Price Index (PPI) is the key US release on Friday. The figures are expected to provide further evidence of elevated price pressures in the US economy, reinforcing the case for the Fed to increase borrowing costs. Forecasts put headline inflation at 6.6% year-on-year (Y-o-Y), up from September's 6.3%. Core inflation is expected to hold at 5% Y-o-Y, matching the previous month.