Cooling NZ inflation leaves New Zealand Dollar lagging

Q3 CPI data below NZ forecasts leaves the New Zealand Dollar weaker against its peers.
New Zealand CPI increased 0.7% in Q3, below forecasts of 0.8% and the preceding quarter’s 1.5% rise.
Renewed strength in the US Dollar has added pressure to the Kiwi pair.

A 0.25% decline leaves the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) near 0.5679 against the US Dollar (USD). During Thursday’s European session, the NZD is also trading weaker against its major currency peers.

New Zealand Dollar: Today’s Currency Moves

Today’s percentage moves in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the major currencies listed appear in the table below. Its largest decline was against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.14%	0.10%	-0.82%	-0.11%	0.27%	0.42%	-0.39%
EUR	-0.14%		-0.05%	-0.95%	-0.29%	0.12%	0.27%	-0.57%
GBP	-0.10%	0.05%		-0.92%	-0.25%	0.16%	0.31%	-0.50%
JPY	0.82%	0.95%	0.92%		0.69%	1.08%	1.20%	0.41%
CAD	0.11%	0.29%	0.25%	-0.69%		0.39%	0.55%	-0.28%
AUD	-0.27%	-0.12%	-0.16%	-1.08%	-0.39%		0.13%	-0.67%
NZD	-0.42%	-0.27%	-0.31%	-1.20%	-0.55%	-0.13%		-0.78%
CHF	0.39%	0.57%	0.50%	-0.41%	0.28%	0.67%	0.78%

Percentage changes between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, following the New Zealand Dollar row horizontally to the US Dollar column gives the percentage change for NZD (base)/USD (quote).

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Q3 CPI Miss Weighs on New Zealand Dollar

Pressure on the Kiwi dollar followed New Zealand (NZ) Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures that fell short of expectations.

According to strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH), NZ Q3 CPI “undershot expectations,” as headline CPI increased “0.7% q/q vs. 1.5% in Q2, below the 0.8% rise forecast by consensus and RBNZ.”

BBH nevertheless maintains that “above target inflation and still elevated oil prices argue for additional RBNZ rate hikes.” Despite the weaker-than-expected reading, the strategists point out that “the swaps curve price in 85% odds of a 25bps RBNZ rate hike to 3.00% on October 28 and more than 100bps of tightening over the next twelve months to 3.75% - near the upper end of the RBNZ’s estimated neutral range of 2.20%-4.10%.”

A US Dollar rebound has put further pressure on the Kiwi pair. After retesting a three-week low near 101.45, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered to around 101.66. The index tracks the Greenback against six major currencies.

Friday’s release of the flash US S&P Global PMI figures for October will be the next focus for investors.

0.5661 EMA Support: NZD/USD Technical Outlook

At the time of writing, NZD/USD stands at 0.5678. A move back above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5661 has given the near-term outlook a mildly bullish bias. The pair remains above this short-term trend indicator. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), near 51, has returned to neutral-to-positive territory. This suggests selling pressure has eased, with scope for the recovery to continue provided the EMA holds as support.

The 20-day EMA at 0.5661 provides the first downside support. A break below it would weaken the emerging positive bias and bring the recent lows back into view. While NZD/USD holds above the average, buyers are likely to support pullbacks. Attention therefore rests on whether the pair can establish a base for a more durable rebound over the coming sessions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Data Indicator

Quarterly Consumer Price Index (QoQ)

Published quarterly by Statistics New Zealand, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks price changes for goods and services purchased by New Zealand households. It serves as a key gauge of inflation and shifts in purchasing trends. The QoQ figure compares prices in the reporting quarter with those in the preceding quarter. A higher reading is regarded as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD); a lower reading is regarded as bearish.

Find out more.

Latest release: Wed 21 October 2026 21:45

Release frequency: Quarterly

Reported figure: 0.7%

Consensus forecast: 0.8%

Prior reading: 1.5%

Data source: Stats NZ

CPI: Significance for Traders

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) targets inflation around the 2% midpoint. This makes Statistics New Zealand’s quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) release particularly important. Consumer price trends typically shape the RBNZ’s interest rate decisions, with substantial implications for the NZD’s valuation. Faster inflation could prompt the RBNZ to tighten rates more quickly, while slower inflation could have the opposite effect. A reading above forecasts is bullish for the NZD.