$1 in bears’ sights: Ripple (XRP) price forecast signals risk of further losses

• Below $1.09, XRP continues to slide on Monday. The decline follows a loss of over 10% last week.
• Net outflows of $529,510 from the US-listed XRP spot ETF last week brought a two-week run of inflows to an end.
• A less favourable macroeconomic environment and deteriorating metrics remain obstacles to an XRP recovery.

Below $1.09 on Monday, Ripple (XRP) extends its losses. The token fell more than 10% last week. Softer institutional demand is adding to downside pressure: XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) registered net outflows of $529,510 last week, breaking a two-week run of inflows. Deteriorating metrics and an unfavourable macroeconomic environment also constrain recovery prospects. Against this backdrop, bears are increasingly focused on the psychological $1 level.

XRP institutional demand cools

Last week’s $529,510 in net outflows from XRP spot ETFs ended two weeks of net inflows, according to SoSoValue data. The shift points to weaker institutional demand for XRP. Should outflows persist and gather pace throughout this week, XRP could face further pressure and a deeper price correction.

XRP faces pressure from weaker metrics

At 0.91 on Monday, CoinGlass’ XRP long-to-short ratio was close to its lowest reading in over a month. Readings below one signal bearish sentiment, reflecting traders’ bets on falling asset prices.

Large whale orders and sell-side dominance feature in both XRP’s spot and futures markets, according to CryptoQuant’s summary data, which also points to a bearish outlook for Ripple. Conditions in the spot market are heating up as well, underscoring a cautious, bearish bias among Ripple traders.

XRP recovery constrained by macroeconomic backdrop

Risk assets came under pressure after last week’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. The stronger-than-expected US payrolls figures bolstered expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could maintain higher interest rates for longer. Holding non-yielding assets such as XRP carries a higher opportunity cost when rates are elevated, while investor appetite for riskier investments diminishes. 

About 78.7% is the probability traders currently assign to a December Fed rate rise, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That compares with 72.8% before the US jobs report. These macroeconomic conditions could remain a drag on XRP’s recovery prospects.

$1 in focus for bears: XRP technical outlook

At $1.095 at the time of writing on Monday, XRP retains a bearish near-term bias. Its price remains well beneath the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cluster between $1.302 and $1.360.

A daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 26 places XRP in oversold territory, suggesting the downside move is stretched. Selling pressure nevertheless persists, as indicated by the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, while the price consolidates close to recent lows.

Any sustained recovery faces initial resistance at $1.160. Heavier supply lies at $1.300 and the 50-day EMA of $1.302. Further barriers follow at the 100-day EMA of $1.307 and the 200-day EMA of $1.360.

The psychological $1.000 level provides the closest significant downside support, where buyers would be expected to mount a defence.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)