USD/CHF rises as hawkish Fed outlook pressures Swiss Franc

165,000 jobs were added to US Nonfarm Payrolls in October. The reported increase far exceeded forecasts, lifting USD/CHF.
A 25-basis-point Fed rate rise carries a probability above 78%, according to CME FedWatch.
Concerns over technology regulation and US fiscal gridlock following Democratic victories could support the Swiss Franc.

0.8210 is the approximate level for USD/CHF in Monday's Asian session. The pair is advancing for a third successive day, although falling crude oil prices could put pressure on the Greenback and cap further gains. Cheaper oil helps reduce inflationary pressures. Energy prices retreated after US President Donald Trump said further military action against Iran was "highly unlikely," provided progress on Iran's nuclear programme continued and the Strait of Hormuz stayed open. Trump also recognised that the unpopular Middle East conflict, which had earlier pushed energy costs up, was a major factor in the Republicans' recent midterm election defeats.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Strong labour market figures and rising expectations of monetary tightening could help the US Dollar (USD) recover its footing. The CME FedWatch tool now puts the probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting above 78%, following a sharp rise.

Solid US employment data are reinforcing expectations of a hawkish Fed. October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) climbed by 165,000, well above the consensus forecast of 65,000 and following September's revised reading of 60,000. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1%, below the 4.2% projection. Attention among investors and market participants is shifting to Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Friday's Producer Price Index (PPI) release for clear signals on the Federal Reserve's next policy steps.

Greater safe-haven demand could support the Swiss Franc (CHF) and weigh on USD/CHF. The Democratic sweep has heightened expectations of stricter regulation of the AI buildout. The result could also produce political deadlock and make US fiscal restraint more likely.

USD/CHF: Downside risk persists, UOB sees recovery potential

A cautious medium-term view on USD/CHF remains in place at UOB Group. Its strategists reiterate that their “update from yesterday (05 Nov, spot at 0.8165) remains valid.” Further losses remain possible, with the strategists observing that “there is a chance for USD to test 0.8110 before the risk of a recovery increases.” For the upside, UOB highlights that “a breach of 0.8205 (no change in ‘strong resistance’) would mean that the USD decline from one week ago has run its course,” identifying this as the pivotal level that would indicate an end to the recent downtrend.

Swiss Franc: Today's Currency Performance

Today's percentage moves in the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the major currencies listed appear in the table below. Its weakest performance was against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.16%	-0.21%	-0.17%	-0.16%	-0.37%	-0.89%	-0.03%
EUR	0.16%		-0.05%	0.00%	-0.01%	-0.21%	-0.73%	0.13%
GBP	0.21%	0.05%		0.06%	0.04%	-0.16%	-0.68%	0.18%
JPY	0.17%	0.00%	-0.06%		-0.00%	-0.20%	-0.73%	0.14%
CAD	0.16%	0.00%	-0.04%	0.00%		-0.20%	-0.72%	0.14%
AUD	0.37%	0.21%	0.16%	0.20%	0.20%		-0.52%	0.34%
NZD	0.89%	0.73%	0.68%	0.73%	0.72%	0.52%		0.86%
CHF	0.03%	-0.13%	-0.18%	-0.14%	-0.14%	-0.34%	-0.86%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, selecting the Swiss Franc on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for CHF (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.