USD/CAD Price Forecast: Pair Shows Strength Ahead of US and Canadian Jobs Data

1.4073 is in sight as USD/CAD surges. October employment figures from the US and Canada are next in focus.
A worldwide sell-off in AI infrastructure shares drives US Dollar outperformance.
October is expected to have brought an additional 13.6K workers into Canada's workforce.

USD/CAD gains 0.45% to around 1.4073. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is under heavy selling pressure against the US Dollar (USD) during Friday's European session.

US Dollar outperformance is lifting the pair ahead of October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures from the United States (US). The release is scheduled for 13:30 GMT.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

A global sell-off in Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks is bolstering safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stands near 101.95, up 0.35%. The index measures the Greenback against six major currencies.

US Dollar: Today's Currency Performance

The New Zealand Dollar recorded the largest loss against the US Dollar today. The table below sets out the US Dollar's (USD) percentage moves against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.38%	0.43%	0.24%	0.42%	0.78%	0.91%	0.18%
EUR	-0.38%		0.05%	-0.14%	0.06%	0.40%	0.53%	-0.20%
GBP	-0.43%	-0.05%		-0.19%	0.00%	0.35%	0.48%	-0.25%
JPY	-0.24%	0.14%	0.19%		0.19%	0.54%	0.67%	-0.06%
CAD	-0.42%	-0.06%	-0.00%	-0.19%		0.35%	0.47%	-0.25%
AUD	-0.78%	-0.40%	-0.35%	-0.54%	-0.35%		0.13%	-0.59%
NZD	-0.91%	-0.53%	-0.48%	-0.67%	-0.47%	-0.13%		-0.71%
CHF	-0.18%	0.20%	0.25%	0.06%	0.25%	0.59%	0.71%

Percentage moves between the major currencies appear in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. To read USD (base)/JPY (quote), for example, start at the US Dollar on the left and follow its row across to the Japanese Yen. The intersecting cell gives the percentage change for that pair.

40k US jobs forecast: TD highlights upside risks

Soft US nonfarm payroll growth is likely to persist in October, according to TD Securities. Its economists forecast headline gains of “40k after job gains moderated to 29k in September.” The bank adds that “despite the subdued, below-consensus print, our forecast would be within the range of breakeven job gains and result in an increase in the three-month moving average.” Nevertheless, TD cautions that “risks to our payrolls forecast are to the upside,” indicating that the result could surpass its baseline projection.

Due at the same time as US NFP, Canada's October labour market figures are also on investors' radar.

Following the dismissal of 68.3K employees in September, Canadian employers are forecast to have added 13.6K workers. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.5%.

1.4071: USD/CAD Technical Outlook

At 1.4071 on the four-hour chart, USD/CAD retains a bullish short-term outlook. Price remains above both the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), at 1.4000, and the key Fibonacci retracement levels of 1.4017 (50.0%) and 1.3950 (61.8%). The Relative Strength Index (14), however, has entered overbought territory around 71.6. This suggests the latest rally may be overstretched, although the wider technical structure continues to favour support on pullbacks.

The first upside hurdle is 1.4084, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If bullish momentum continues, the next barriers lie at the 23.6% level of 1.4167 and the recent upper Fibonacci anchor near 1.4302. Initial downside support sits at 1.4017, the 50.0% retracement, just ahead of the 20-period EMA at 1.4000. A larger retreat would bring the 61.8% retracement at 1.3950 into view. Further below, the Fibonacci base at 1.3733 provides a more distant structural floor.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Data Indicator

Employment: Net Change

Statistics Canada's Net Change in Employment tracks changes in the number of people employed in Canada. An increase generally points to economic growth and is positive for consumer spending. A strong reading is therefore regarded as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), whereas a weak figure is considered bearish.

Find out more.

Upcoming release: Fri 06 Nov 2026 13:30

Release frequency: Monthly

Market consensus: 13.6K

Prior reading: -68.3K

Data source: Statistics Canada

Employment Change: Implications for CAD

Employment Change carries the greatest weight among Canada’s labour market indicators. These statistics typically have a substantial influence on the Canadian dollar. Employment levels are closely correlated with consumption, which affects inflation and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decisions, ultimately moving the C$. Readings above consensus generally support CAD, while currency markets usually respond to the release in a steady, consistent manner.