Near $100: WTI pulls back as key policy decisions take centre stage

• $100.00 is back in sight for oil. Prices have pulled back towards that level from a five-month peak of $103.28.
• Unchanged interest rates are expected from the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ at this week’s policy meetings.
• Elevated escalation risk before Israeli elections and US midterm elections is expected to keep oil prices supported.

$100 is again within reach for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX. On Monday, the contract pulls back towards that level from its five-month peak of $103.28. Caution ahead of major monetary policy decisions from several global central banks is weighing on oil prices.

Three central banks expected to hold rates before later increases

Upcoming policy meetings will dominate market attention for the rest of the week, according to analysts at Danske Bank, who highlight that “focus turns to interest rate decisions from the Fed on Wednesday, the ECB on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday.” The bank says it “expect all three to keep interest rates unchanged before resuming rate hikes later this year,” pointing to a short-term pause in tightening within a broader outlook for further rate increases.

Fears of renewed escalation between the United States (US) and Iran drove substantial gains in oil last week. A US State Department call for a broader withdrawal of US diplomatic personnel from the Gulf prompted caution across financial markets.

Oil outlook: election risks support near-term upside

A near-term upside bias remains in place for crude, according to TD Securities. Its analysts warn that “we expect crude oil will remain skewed to the upside in the near term as escalation risk ahead of Israeli elections and US midterm elections remains elevated.” They add that “recent Houthi strikes have seen risk premium pricing in the market increase, while persistent tanker attacks by Iran appear to have been successful in reducing some Hormuz flows,” highlighting the geopolitical premium already reflected in prices.

$100.51 WTI: Technical Outlook

WTI US Oil stands at $100.51 on the daily chart. Holding comfortably above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $95.68 keeps the near-term outlook bullish. The uptrend therefore appears supported despite the recent consolidation. At 62.99, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory without reaching overbought levels, signalling positive but not excessive upward momentum.

The $100.51 region serves as the immediate pivot and first area of downside support. A deeper retreat would bring stronger underlying demand near the 20-day EMA at $95.68 into focus. The current dataset identifies no nearby technical resistance. Traders may therefore continue to assess price behaviour above these support levels for signs that the bullish structure can extend or that a correction is taking shape.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)