Below $100: WTI Extends Pullback | Price Forecast

$100 gives way as oil retreats. Concerns over renewed US attacks on Iran have eased.
A diplomatic solution remains President Trump’s preference, according to US Secretary of State Rubio.
Discussions with the US via Qatari mediators remain under way, Iran indicates.

2.25% is the decline in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX. Prices are near $99.80 in Monday’s European session. Crude is extending a correction that began when its rally failed to advance beyond $104.03, the five-month high reached on Friday.

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Signals that the United States (US) would favour a diplomatic solution with Iran rather than renewed military action have reduced concerns about prolonged energy supply risks. That easing of supply fears is weighing on WTI.

Speaking over the weekend, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump favours a diplomatic resolution and Washington has not decided to resume strikes on Tehran. Military action nevertheless remained a possibility: Rubio said the US retains the capabilities to fulfil whatever military objective Trump chooses to pursue.

Energy supply concerns also eased following comments from Iran, reported by Al Jazeera. Iran said discussions with Qatari mediators were continuing on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, provided the US cooperates.

The fall in oil prices also suggests financial markets are disregarding claims by US media personality and political commentator Tucker Carlso, reported by The Times of India (ToI). Carlso alleged that Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu is urging US President Donald Trump to carry out a nuclear strike on Iran, and that Washington could decide on the use of nuclear weapons within days.

$104.03 Resistance: WTI Technical Outlook

Below $100 on the daily chart, WTI US Oil sits just beneath its 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $100.09. This average limits the upside, leaving the near-term outlook mildly bearish even after the sharp advance from the mid-$80s.

Trading below the short-term EMA points to fading bullish traction. However, the Relative Strength Index (14), at around 58, remains in positive territory. Momentum therefore still appears constructive, but has not yet delivered a decisive bullish break through immediate resistance.

The principal upside barrier is the five-month peak of $104.03. Should prices decline, the 20 October low of $95.05 could provide key support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI Oil: Key Questions

What Defines WTI Oil?

Among the crude oils traded internationally, WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate. It is one of three major types, alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. Its relatively low gravity and sulphur content earn it the descriptions “light” and “sweet”, respectively. Regarded as a high-quality oil, WTI is readily refined. Production is based in the United States, with distribution through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. WTI serves as an oil-market benchmark, and its price is regularly cited by the media.

What Drives WTI Oil Prices?

Supply and demand underpin WTI oil prices, as they do other asset prices. Stronger global growth can lift demand, while weaker growth can have the reverse effect. Supply disruptions caused by political instability, wars or sanctions can also move prices. Another major influence is policy set by OPEC, a group of leading oil-producing countries. As crude is predominantly traded in US Dollars, the value of the US Dollar also matters: a weaker dollar can make WTI crude oil more affordable, while a stronger dollar can do the opposite.

Why Do Inventory Figures Move WTI Oil Prices?

WTI oil prices respond to weekly oil inventory releases from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA). Stock movements signal shifts in supply and demand. A drawdown may point to stronger demand and lift oil prices; a build may indicate greater supply and weigh on prices. The API publishes its report each Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two releases tend to show similar results, with readings within 1% of each other 75% of the time. As the EIA is a government agency, its figures are regarded as more reliable.

How Do OPEC Decisions Affect WTI Oil Prices?

At meetings held twice a year, the 12 oil-producing nations of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) jointly set production quotas for member countries. These decisions frequently influence WTI oil prices. Reduced quotas can constrain supply and raise oil prices, whereas higher production has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ grouping brings in ten additional non-OPEC members, most notably Russia.