Aussie falls below 0.7000 as US election worries outweigh RBA rate hike

• AUD/USD declines as geopolitical uncertainty mounts.
• RBA lifts rates to 4.85% as Bullock holds back on forward guidance.
• Iran dismisses claims of an imminent peace deal while US midterm voting proceeds.

At 0.6965, AUD/USD is down 0.44% late on Tuesday, with the Australian Dollar weakening against the US Dollar as voting continues in the US midterm elections. Efforts to secure a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war have meanwhile stalled after Iran rejected claims that an agreement was close.

AUD/USD adds to losses as US election uncertainty and stalled Iran peace efforts outweigh the RBA’s latest rate rise

With the first US midterm exit polls approaching, attention centres on whether the Democrats will secure control of the US House of Representatives and the US Senate. How US President Donald Trump will respond to the result is also in focus. Polymarket, meanwhile, puts the probability of a Democratic Senate victory at 75% and the chance of the party taking a House majority at 95%.

On the US-Iran conflict, Washington has approved the draft memorandum of understanding that the Qatari delegation submitted to Iran. A senior Iranian official nevertheless said the two countries remained far from an agreement to end the war.

US job vacancies in the JOLTS report increased by 4.5% to 7.5 million from 7.19 million in the previous month. The hiring rate edged up from 3.3% to 3.4%, while the total separations rate held steady at 3.3%. Separately, Factory Orders rose 1.8% MoM, exceeding August’s 0.3% reading.

Wednesday’s US economic calendar includes October’s ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI releases.

A 6-3 vote saw the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raise rates to 4.85% a day earlier. Governor Michelle Bullock took a more neutral stance, noting that the three dissenters preferred to await further data. While acknowledging uncertainty over how high rates needed to go, she declined to offer forward guidance on their future path.

The latest October reading of the S&P Global Services PMI rose to 48.5 from 47.8.

AUD/USD price forecast: Bearish bias persists below moving averages

Trading at 0.6964 on the daily chart, AUD/USD retains a bearish near-term bias below the simple moving average (SMA) cluster in the Moving Average Triple around 0.7059. A series of rising trend lines continues to underpin the price, with nearby structural demand converging around 0.6922. At 41.6, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests momentum is stabilising but remains subdued, rather than signalling a decisive recovery.

The daily SMA cluster near 0.7059 provides the first resistance, ahead of the horizontal barrier at 0.7198 that limits the broader upside. Initial support lies in the rising trend-line region around 0.6922, followed by lower support levels at 0.6897 and 0.6865. Further medium-term support sits at 0.6833 and 0.6673, with the previous breakout area near 0.6348 providing another floor.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)