Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH remains below $2,309 realised price amid US-led selling

Ethereum trades at $2,280 today

• At $2,309, Ethereum's average on-chain cost basis, also known as its realised price, has capped recovery attempts over the past two days.
• Nearly $140 million has flowed out of US spot ETH ETFs, extending their run of withdrawals.
• A retest of $2,250 saw ETH retain support at that level.

Around $2,300, Ethereum (ETH) remains under pressure on Tuesday, struggling to regain its realised price.

Following last Thursday's $6.3 billion Binance hack, the leading altcoin dropped below $2,309, its realised price, which represents investors' average on-chain cost basis.

Attempts to approach that threshold over the past two days have met with rejection, indicating that sellers outweigh buyers near it. Investors had defended the on-chain cost basis for more than a week before last Thursday's fall, keeping prices just above the level.

Protecting holdings from slipping into a loss has historically prompted investors to defend the on-chain cost basis. Once prices move below it, however, investors also tend to sell to limit losses. Their response depends heavily on the underlying market structure.

US investors drive selling in ETH

Nearly $140 million left US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Monday, according to SoSoValue, marking their sixth successive day of net outflows as selling by US-based investors persisted. October had already brought record monthly withdrawals of $1.61 billion from the products.

A similar pattern is evident in the Coinbase Premium Index, which has extended its negative trend to -0.161. By comparing the ETH/USD price on Coinbase Pro with the ETH/USDT price on Binance, the index provides a gauge of US traders' sentiment. Its persistent decline indicates that US investors account for the dominant share of selling.

Rising ETH prices have often accompanied stronger ETH ETF inflows and an improvement in broader US sentiment. Both measures therefore need to improve for the leading altcoin to potentially regain its realised price.

Ethereum technical outlook: ETH maintains support at $2,250

Short positions accounted for $20.2 million of Ethereum's $29.3 million in liquidations during the past 24 hours, according to Coinglass data.

A bearish near-term bias persists on the daily chart, where ETH remains beneath its short- and medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Recovery attempts face successive overhead barriers at the 20-day EMA of $2,352, the 100-day EMA of $2,345 and the 50-day EMA of $2,411. Rallies into this cluster are therefore likely to encounter selling pressure. Momentum indicators also remain subdued: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 39, while the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) stands near 34, suggesting that bearish pressure remains dominant.

The horizontal $2,250 level provides initial downside support. If selling continues, $2,204 and $2,107 are the next levels to watch, with a deeper decline bringing the structural support levels of $1,971 and $1,827 into view. For any advance, the first resistance area combines the converging 100- and 20-day EMAs with the horizontal barrier at $2,355, creating a dense supply zone. Beyond that zone lies the 50-day EMA, followed by further resistance at $2,548, $2,636 and $2,781.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)