
US inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but the central bank left interest rates unchanged, with the Australian Dollar holding firm against the US Dollar following the decision. Two members dissented, preferring a quarter-percentage-point increase. AUD/USD is trading at 0.7056.

Interest rates were left at 3.75%–4% by the Fed on Wednesday. Dissenting from the decision, Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both backed a 25-basis-point increase.
In its assessment of the economy, the Fed recognised continued expansion in activity and said domestic spending “has been resilient, that productivity growth is strong and that capital investment is robust,” while also highlighting strong productivity growth. Turning to its employment mandate, it observed that “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”
Although the central bank described inflation as still elevated, it opted to defer further rate increases while collecting additional information and evaluating the appropriate policy stance.

Interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rank among the main influences on the Australian Dollar (AUD). Australia's substantial natural resources also make the price of iron ore, its largest export, an important driver. Other influences include conditions in China, Australia's biggest trading partner, alongside domestic inflation, economic growth and the trade balance. Investor appetite for risk matters too: a shift towards riskier assets, known as risk-on, supports AUD, while a preference for safe havens is described as risk-off.
By setting the interest rate at which Australian banks can lend to one another, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences borrowing costs across the economy and, in turn, the Australian Dollar (AUD). Its principal objective is to keep inflation stable at 2-3%, raising or lowering rates as required. When rates are relatively high compared with those set by other major central banks, they support AUD; relatively low rates have the reverse effect. Credit conditions can also be adjusted through quantitative easing or tightening. Easing weighs on AUD, whereas tightening supports it.
As Australia's largest trading partner, China has a substantial bearing on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). A strong Chinese economy buys more Australian raw materials, goods and services, increasing demand for AUD and lifting its value. When Chinese growth falls short of expectations, the reverse applies. Surprises in China's growth figures, whether positive or negative, therefore often feed directly into the Australian Dollar and its currency pairs.
With annual exports worth $118 billion according to 2021 data, iron ore is Australia's biggest export, and China is its main destination. This makes iron ore prices a potential driver of the Australian Dollar. Rising prices generally lift AUD by increasing overall demand for the currency, while falling prices have the opposite effect. More expensive iron ore also tends to improve the likelihood of an Australian trade surplus, providing further support for AUD.
Another influence on the Australian Dollar is the trade balance: the difference between a country's export earnings and its spending on imports. Strong overseas demand for Australian exports can lift the currency's value because foreign buyers' purchases generate demand in excess of Australia's spending on imports. A positive net trade balance therefore strengthens AUD, whereas a negative balance has the reverse effect.