Bitcoin Price Forecast: Weekly ETF outflows of $1.28 billion weigh on BTC

• The 50-week SMA around $75,222 remains above Bitcoin on Monday, after last week’s close below the average extended its run of weekly losses to five.
• Net outflows of $1.28 billion from US-listed spot ETFs last week represented the largest weekly withdrawal since the end of June.
• With jobs figures exceeding expectations, the prospect of the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer gained support, putting pressure on risk assets including BTC.

Stronger-than-expected jobs figures have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could leave interest rates higher for longer, adding to pressure on Bitcoin (BTC). On Monday, the cryptocurrency trades beneath its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75,222, having registered five consecutive weekly declines. Last week’s $1.28 billion in net withdrawals from spot BTC Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), the largest weekly outflow since late June, also deepened bearish sentiment towards the leading cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin ETFs Record Largest Weekly Outflow Since Late June

Net withdrawals from BTC spot ETFs reached $1.28 billion last week, according to SoSoValue, signalling softer institutional demand for Bitcoin. It was the largest weekly outflow since the end of June and the second consecutive week of withdrawals, pointing to waning investor demand. Should withdrawals persist and gather pace throughout this week, BTC could face further pressure and a deeper price correction.

Macroeconomic Backdrop Restrains BTC

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures exceeded expectations, bolstering the view that the Fed could maintain higher interest rates for longer and putting risk assets under pressure. For holders of non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, higher rates raise the opportunity cost. They may also tighten financial conditions and curb investors’ willingness to take on riskier investments. 

The CME FedWatch tool chart puts the market-implied probability of a Fed rate increase in December at about 80.5%, compared with 72.8% before the US jobs report. Against this macroeconomic backdrop, BTC’s prospects for a recovery could remain under pressure.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook: BTC Breaks Below Key Support

A 4.47% decline last week left the leading cryptocurrency below the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75,222 at the close, completing a fifth consecutive week of losses. BTC remains beneath that average as the new week begins on Monday, trading around $74,984.

A continuation of BTC’s correction could take the price towards the 200-week SMA at $68,031.

At 48, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits beneath the neutral 50 threshold, pointing to waning bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, by contrast, is still positive, though its bars are shrinking. Taken together, these signals suggest that the broader upward momentum has not reversed but is weakening as nearby resistance and the continuing correction weigh.

A rebound in BTC could instead bring the 50-week SMA at $75,222 into view. Closing above that level and holding it could open the way for a recovery towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $78,661, measured from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199. 

Trading below the major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) leaves BTC’s short-term outlook bearish on the daily chart. The closest obstacle is the 200-day EMA at $76,458. Above it, the 100-day EMA at $77,624 and the 50-day EMA at $79,305 add to the substantial overhead resistance. 

An RSI reading near 36 also points to weaker daily momentum. With the MACD still negative and below zero, any rallies towards these overhead levels are likely to encounter selling pressure.

The first upside hurdle is the 200-day EMA around $76,458, with the 100-day EMA at $77,624 next in line. If the recovery strengthens, attention would turn to the 50-day EMA at $79,307, followed by horizontal resistance near $85,000.

With no nearby support identified on the chart, a break below current levels would suggest a move towards the psychological support area around $70,000 before BTC stabilises.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)