Solana Price Forecast: SOL faces further downside risk as ETF outflows persist

• An 8% fall last week took Solana through a crucial support level and marked its fifth successive weekly loss, leaving the token trading just below $90 on Monday.
• Outflows from SOL-focused ETFs exceeded $26 million last week as selling pressure extended into a fifth consecutive week.
• Lower open interest and funding rates in SOL futures point to fading interest among retail traders.

Five consecutive weeks of outflows from Solana-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), totalling over $150 million, have accompanied a steady decline in Solana (SOL) over the same period. On Monday, SOL is edging higher but remains below $90, having lost over 3% and slipped beneath a long-term support trendline the previous day. Retail participation is also weakening: continued position unwinding has pushed open interest to a two-month low, while a negative funding rate underlines the persistent bias towards selling.

Continued selling pressure leaves Solana at risk of a decline towards $77 from a technical perspective.

SOL comes under pressure as ETF outflows persist and open interest falls

ETF redemptions and falling open interest (OI) are among several bearish indicators pointing to the risk of further losses for Solana. SoSoValue reports that outflows from Solana ETFs approached $170 million over the past five weeks. That total includes $26.25 million last week and the largest weekly withdrawal of $71.47 million in the previous month. Against a backdrop of wider market uncertainty, the scale of these redemptions signals weakening institutional demand for Solana.

Meanwhile, SOL futures OI stood at $5.10 billion on Monday, its lowest level since August 19, according to CoinGlass. Positions have been steadily unwound since OI reached a high of $7.62 billion on October 8. This reduction has coincided with falling spot prices and ETF withdrawals, suggesting that ETF outflows are the main driver of the continuing correction. A return to weekly ETF inflows could signal a possible trend reversal for traders awaiting a recovery in SOL.

A funding rate of -0.0033%, however, points to a near-term preference for selling, with traders prepared to pay a premium to take short positions. Sunday also saw $33.64 million in long liquidations against $1.35 million in short liquidations, further highlighting the strength of selling pressure. 

Technical outlook: SOL faces a test of support at $80

Last week's 8% fall extended Solana's 19% decline in October, with the token trading at $87.60 at the time of writing on Monday as its steady retreat since early October continues. SOL has slipped beneath both the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $99.26 and a long-term rising trendline linking the June 6 and August 1 lows, around $90.41. Meanwhile, the falling 50-day EMA at $100.35 is at risk of moving below the 200-day EMA. Such a formation, commonly known as a death cross, would confirm a bearish trend reversal.

Daily momentum indicators offer little sign of relief. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near oversold territory at 29, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative. Together, they suggest that selling pressure has yet to run its course despite the stretched conditions.

The horizontal level at $87.46 provides immediate support just below the current price, with a more significant demand zone following around $77.60. A sustained breach of that zone would leave the deeper support levels of $67.50 and $60.13 exposed, where the base of the broader uptrend from previous months converges.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance near $90.41, where the former trendline was breached, before reaching the horizontal barrier at $95.82.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)