Gulf attacks lift crude oil to a 22-week high

• A 22-week high for WTI marks a breakout from its trading range since Monday.
• A tanker comes under attack while departing Hormuz as Aramco evacuates its headquarters.
• Following his comments on Iran, President Trump addresses a rally in Fort Myers on Friday.

WTI has climbed from around $98.50 to a 22-week high just below $103.00, breaking out of the $95.00-$101.00 range that held from Monday to Thursday. The advance follows two days of Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and strikes against vessels departing the Strait of Hormuz. Prices are now trading within the upper fifth of the session’s range.

Following the deaths of two people from Houthi drone debris at the Shaybah field, Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) instructed its remaining employees on Thursday to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters. On Friday, UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that an unidentified projectile had struck a tanker departing Hormuz near Limah in Oman. With both attacks affecting supplies still making their way out of the Gulf, WTI advanced on Thursday and is extending those gains on Friday.

While President Trump said the US could bring the war to a very swift end, US Ambassador to the United Nations Waltz told the Financial Times that it could continue for another year. According to Ambassador Waltz, the Navy can maintain its blockade of Iran’s ports for the foreseeable future. Kpler expects the blockade to reduce Iran’s crude oil revenue to zero by mid-December. Either timescale leaves Iranian barrels absent from a market already facing a shortage of Gulf supplies.

Trump’s Friday Rally Follows Hormuz Remarks

After telling reporters that the US is taking all the crude oil it wants out of Hormuz, President Trump is holding a midterm rally in Fort Myers, Florida, on Friday. According to ABC News, The Atlantic and The New York Times, US and Israeli preparations for strikes against Iran after the 3 November midterms are proceeding. Although officials say a decision has yet to be taken, such strikes would affect Gulf supplies already under attack.

WTI Moves Beyond September Peak

Having exceeded the 15 September peak just above $102.00, the price has returned close to that level. WTI has now gained about $28 from its 6 August low near $74.00, while the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) has climbed to just above $91.50. For the first time since mid-September, daily momentum has just entered overbought territory.

Daily chart of WTI spot prices