EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Break below nine-day EMA leaves pair trading near 176.50

The 12-month low at 175.07 could provide EUR/JPY with its first support.
A reading of 45.73 on the 14-day Relative Strength Index points to muted bullish momentum.
At 176.91, the nine-day EMA represents the nearest resistance.

Trading near 176.80 in Friday’s Asian session, EUR/JPY is declining for a second successive day. On the daily chart, the cross continues to trade inside a descending channel, with the technical picture pointing to a prevailing bearish bias.

With EUR/JPY below both its nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the near-term outlook remains bearish. These short- and medium-term averages sit above the current price, suggesting that rallies remain constrained for now. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 45.73, below the neutral 50 threshold, signalling limited bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

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Initial support could come into view if EUR/JPY retreats towards 175.07, the 12-month low recorded on 30 October. Beyond that lies the descending channel’s lower boundary at around 174.00. Should the cross break beneath the channel, the area surrounding the 15-month low of 169.72 would become accessible.

A recovery in EUR/JPY could bring a test of the nearest resistance, the nine-day EMA at 176.91. The next obstacle is the descending channel’s upper boundary, close to the 50-day EMA at 178.59. Clearing that medium-term moving average would trigger a bullish reversal, giving the cross scope to approach the area around 187.95, its all-time high set on 17 April.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY Maintains Its Bearish Bias on the Daily Chart

Structural outflows continue to weigh on the Yen as rate signals remain distorted

Recent official action has disrupted the customary relationship between the Yen and interest rate differentials, according to analysts at MUFG/BTMU. They point to “intervention in last July / early August” as having “distorted the link with rates.” Nonetheless, the analysts emphasise that the currency’s behaviour sends a clear underlying signal: “what the movement of the yen does indicate is that there are still some structural flows that continue to weigh on yen performance and those flows could well be slow to change.” The implication is that persistent portfolio and FDI outflows continue to act as a significant drag on JPY despite shifting rate dynamics, and are unlikely to reverse swiftly.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Performs Weakest Against the Yen Today

Today’s percentage moves in the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed are set out below. The Euro’s weakest performance was against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.18%	0.12%	-0.02%	0.20%	0.54%	0.58%	-0.01%
EUR	-0.18%		-0.07%	-0.21%	0.03%	0.36%	0.40%	-0.20%
GBP	-0.12%	0.07%		-0.13%	0.10%	0.43%	0.47%	-0.13%
JPY	0.02%	0.21%	0.13%		0.23%	0.57%	0.60%	0.00%
CAD	-0.20%	-0.03%	-0.10%	-0.23%		0.33%	0.37%	-0.22%
AUD	-0.54%	-0.36%	-0.43%	-0.57%	-0.33%		0.04%	-0.56%
NZD	-0.58%	-0.40%	-0.47%	-0.60%	-0.37%	-0.04%		-0.58%
CHF	0.01%	0.20%	0.13%	-0.01%	0.22%	0.56%	0.58%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.