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Services inflation reflects more than tariff pressure, Fed's Goolsbee warns
Services inflation has picked up over the past few months, Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee reiterated during a Q&A session at the Leadership Greater Chicago event on Monday. That acceleration complicates the case that tariffs alone are influencing prices.
Describing inflation as the main problem, Goolsbee said that “employment and growth are actually pretty stable,” while stressing that the Fed has “to come to terms with inflation failure.”
Goolsbee Highlights Inflation Pressures:
Growth and employment remain fairly stable.
Inflation has accounted for the main problem.
We must come to terms with the failure on inflation.
Services inflation is beginning to pick up.
Data centres appear to show classic signs of overheating.
Growth has been driven mainly by consumer spending.
US Dollar Performs Best Against Swiss Franc Today
Against the major currencies listed, the US Dollar (USD) recorded its strongest performance versus the Swiss Franc today. The table below sets out the day's percentage changes.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.45% | -0.38% | -0.22% | 0.07% | -0.52% | -1.14% | 0.23% | |
| EUR | 0.45% | 0.07% | 0.25% | 0.53% | -0.06% | -0.69% | 0.68% | |
| GBP | 0.38% | -0.07% | 0.19% | 0.45% | -0.14% | -0.75% | 0.61% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | -0.25% | -0.19% | 0.28% | -0.31% | -0.94% | 0.44% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | -0.53% | -0.45% | -0.28% | -0.59% | -1.21% | 0.16% | |
| AUD | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.14% | 0.31% | 0.59% | -0.63% | 0.75% | |
| NZD | 1.14% | 0.69% | 0.75% | 0.94% | 1.21% | 0.63% | 1.38% | |
| CHF | -0.23% | -0.68% | -0.61% | -0.44% | -0.16% | -0.75% | -1.38% |
Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the US Dollar on the left and following that row across to the Japanese Yen, for instance, gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.
Fed Policy Explained
The Federal Reserve (Fed) sets US monetary policy with a dual mandate of maintaining stable prices and promoting full employment. Adjustments to interest rates are its main means of pursuing those objectives. If prices climb too rapidly and inflation exceeds the Fed’s 2% target, the central bank increases interest rates. Borrowing then becomes more expensive across the economy, while the US becomes a more attractive destination for international investment, strengthening the US Dollar (USD). Conversely, inflation below 2% or an excessively high unemployment rate may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates to stimulate borrowing, putting pressure on the greenback.
At eight policy meetings each year, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (Fed) reviews the state of the economy and decides on monetary policy. Twelve Fed officials attend the FOMC: the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and four of the other eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents. These four serve rotating one-year terms.
Faced with extreme circumstances, the Federal Reserve may turn to Quantitative Easing (QE) to increase substantially the flow of credit through a stalled financial system. This unconventional policy is used in crises or periods of exceptionally low inflation, and was the Fed’s preferred tool during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. Under QE, the Fed prints additional dollars to purchase high-grade bonds from financial institutions. The policy generally weakens the US Dollar.
Reversing QE, quantitative tightening (QT) involves the Federal Reserve halting bond purchases from financial institutions and allowing its existing bonds to mature without reinvesting the principal in new bonds. This generally supports the value of the US Dollar.
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