WTI oil deepens losses towards $87.00 as efforts continue to restart US-Iran talks

  • A decline of nearly 3% on Monday takes WTI Oil to lows around $87.00, close to its two-month lows of $86.32.
  • Diplomatic efforts are gathering pace to restart negotiations between the US and Iran.
  • Sunday’s attack on an Iraqi gas field and Iran’s accusation that the US struck Qeshm Island underline continuing regional tensions.

At $87.30 at the time of writing, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is down nearly 3% on Monday, trading just above the two-month lows of $86.32 reached in early October. The renewed decline in oil prices comes as diplomatic initiatives to prevent a resumption of US-Iran hostilities gather pace. Markets have interpreted these efforts as an indication that a negotiated resolution to the conflict remains possible.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

According to Reuters reports, a meeting on Monday will bring together US President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani. They will discuss the latest diplomatic initiatives aimed at restarting negotiations between the US and Iran.

Trump Plays Down Prospect of Further Iran Attacks While Talks Progress

Tensions eased with Trump’s statement on Sunday that a US attack on Iran would be highly unlikely while negotiations towards a peace agreement were making progress. Speaking that same day before leaving for a G7 summit, Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned that he did not expect an immediate breakthrough. He nevertheless said that President Trump favoured a diplomatic resolution, while describing Iran’s demands so far as “unacceptable”.

New directives from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei seek to end the state of “neither war nor peace” with the US, Iranian Prime Minister Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday. However, Iranian authorities are demanding an end to the US naval blockade and the release of Iran’s assets seized abroad before advancing towards a peace process. They also accused the US of failing to honour its commitments.

Despite the diplomatic activity, skirmishes continue in the region. A drone strike hit the Khor Mor gas field in Iraq’s Kurdish region, while Iranian state media reported that the US military struck targets on Queshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday night.

WTI Oil: Key Questions Answered

Traded on international markets, WTI Oil is a variety of crude oil. Its name stands for West Texas Intermediate, which ranks alongside Brent and Dubai Crude as one of three major types. The descriptions “light” and “sweet” refer respectively to its relatively low gravity and sulphur content. These qualities make it a high-quality oil that is straightforward to refine. Produced in the United States, WTI is distributed through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. Its role as an oil market benchmark means that WTI prices are regularly cited in the media.

Supply and demand determine WTI Oil prices, as they do for other assets. Stronger global growth can increase demand, whereas weaker growth can have the reverse effect. On the supply side, political instability, wars and sanctions can cause disruption and affect prices. Decisions taken by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, are another important influence. The US Dollar also matters because oil is traded predominantly in US Dollars: a weaker currency can make oil more affordable, while a stronger one can have the opposite effect.

WTI Oil prices respond to the weekly oil inventory figures released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA). Inventory movements provide an indication of shifts in supply and demand. A fall in stocks can signal stronger demand and push oil prices higher; a rise can point to greater supply and weigh on prices. The API releases its report every Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of figures tend to be similar, coming within 1% of one another 75% of the time. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

At twice-yearly meetings, the 12 oil-producing nations that form OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) jointly set production quotas for member countries. These decisions frequently influence WTI Oil prices. Lower quotas can restrict supply and lift oil prices, whereas increased OPEC production has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ group brings in ten additional non-OPEC members, with Russia the most notable.