Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD probes key $4,070 support as Oil prices remain high

• The $4,070 level, a low of nearly three months, comes under pressure as XAU/USD falls steeply on Thursday.
• Lower US Treasury yields have offered little support, with surging oil prices cancelling out their positive effect.
• A break beneath $4,070 would draw sellers’ attention to the psychological $4,000 mark.

The $4,070 level, marking both the lower boundary of the past three weeks’ trading range and a low of nearly three months, remains intact as Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Tuesday to test it. Higher oil prices continue to weigh on precious metals on Thursday. The Middle East conflict threatens to become more complicated, while Yemeni Houthi militias persist in their attacks on Saudi oilfields.

A New York Times report suggesting that the US and Israel might be considering resuming coordinated strikes on Iran after the US midterm election has been followed by further gains in oil. Brent Oil is challenging five-month highs near $109.00, while WTI Crude is nearing $100.

At the same time, the Iran-backed Houthis are continuing their attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure. Two people have reportedly been killed in a drone strike on Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield, reviving worries over supply disruptions. Together, these developments are fuelling the recent rise in crude prices and negating the support that falling US Treasury yields traditionally provide to precious metals.

Technical Analysis: Gold sellers challenge $4,070 as $4,000 comes into view

Since late September, the key support zone near $4,070 has held back declines in XAU/USD, which now trades just above it at $4,085.58. The bearish outlook is reinforced by momentum signals on the 4-hour chart: the Relative Strength Index (14) is slipping towards the low-30s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory.

Should a break below the $4,070 zone be confirmed (the lows of 7 and 14 October), attention would turn to the late July and early August lows near the psychological $4,000 level. By contrast, any recovery is likely to face a test at the highs reached on Tuesday and Wednesday, around $4,150. Beyond that lie the $4,200 zone (the highs of 13 and 16 October) and the upper boundary of the range near $4,230.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)