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India: RBI expected to raise rates if CPI exceeds 6% – Commerzbank
India’s October CPI inflation is expected to exceed 6% year-on-year, according to Commerzbank Research, as high oil prices, robust domestic demand and an unfavourable base effect push it higher. The report points to further rate rises, with RBI’s projections placing inflation close to the upper limit of its target band through mid-2027. Nearly 90bp of cumulative tightening by February 2027 is implied by OIS pricing.
RBI remains on tightening course as inflation proves persistent
"It is expected to climb further and could well exceed 6% you compared to 5.5% in September."
"More worryingly for RBI, this low base effect will persist into November and December, which is likely to keep inflation elevated above 6.0% throughout Q4 2026."
"In the October review, RBI projected inflation at 6% in Q4 2026, and for it stay firm for the next two quarters, at 5.7% in Q1 2027 and 5.6% in Q2 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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