Inflation outlook holds steady as job concerns mount, NY Fed Survey of Consumers shows

One-year inflation expectations among Americans held at 3.9% in October, unchanged from September, according to the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). The survey also pointed to expectations that petrol prices could moderate over the next twelve months.

Households reported greater optimism about their personal finances, while inflation expectations at the three- and five-year horizons held at their previous readings of 3.3% and 3%, respectively.

An increase in the unemployment rate to its highest level since 2020 is expected by consumers, the survey found. Expectations for house price growth, meanwhile, remained steady at 3%.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

US Dollar Performs Best Against Swiss Franc Today

Against the major currencies listed below, the US Dollar (USD) recorded its strongest performance against the Swiss Franc today. The table sets out the dollar’s percentage change against each currency.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.54% -0.49% -0.30% 0.05% -0.64% -1.32% 0.12%
EUR 0.54% 0.05% 0.25% 0.58% -0.11% -0.79% 0.65%
GBP 0.49% -0.05% 0.21% 0.53% -0.17% -0.84% 0.60%
JPY 0.30% -0.25% -0.21% 0.34% -0.35% -1.02% 0.41%
CAD -0.05% -0.58% -0.53% -0.34% -0.68% -1.35% 0.07%
AUD 0.64% 0.11% 0.17% 0.35% 0.68% -0.67% 0.76%
NZD 1.32% 0.79% 0.84% 1.02% 1.35% 0.67% 1.45%
CHF -0.12% -0.65% -0.60% -0.41% -0.07% -0.76% -1.45%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the US Dollar on the left and following its row across to the Japanese Yen, for instance, gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.

Inflation Explained: Frequently Asked Questions

The increase in the cost of a representative basket of goods and services is measured by inflation. The headline rate is generally reported as a percentage change, both month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY). By stripping out more volatile components, including food and fuel, core inflation excludes prices that can move in response to seasonal and geopolitical factors. Economists concentrate on this core measure, which is also the rate targeted by central banks. Their mandate is to maintain inflation at a manageable level, typically around 2%.

Price changes across a basket of goods and services over a given period are tracked by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The index is generally reported as a percentage change on both a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Central banks target Core CPI because it removes volatile food and fuel components. A reading above 2% usually leads to higher interest rates; conversely, a reading below 2% generally leads to lower rates. As higher interest rates support a currency, rising inflation typically strengthens it, while falling inflation tends to have the opposite effect.

A country’s currency rises in value when inflation is high, and the reverse applies when inflation is lower, despite this relationship appearing counter-intuitive. To curb higher inflation, the central bank will normally increase interest rates. Those higher rates draw in more international capital from investors seeking an attractive return on their money.

Historically, investors sought Gold during periods of high inflation for its ability to retain value. Although they still often buy Gold as a safe haven during severe market turmoil, that historical pattern does not apply most of the time. The reason is that central banks raise interest rates to bring high inflation under control. For Gold, higher rates are unfavourable: they raise the opportunity cost of holding it rather than an interest-bearing asset or keeping money in a cash deposit account. By contrast, lower inflation generally benefits Gold by bringing interest rates down, making the precious metal a more viable investment alternative.