Ripple Price Forecast: Bears target $1 as XRP risks extending losses

• Following last week’s fall of over 10%, XRP remains under pressure on Monday, trading below $1.09.
• Last week’s $529,510 in net outflows from US-listed XRP spot ETFs brought two consecutive weeks of inflows to an end.
• A less favourable macroeconomic environment and deteriorating metrics continue to constrain the prospects for an XRP recovery.

Net outflows of $529,510 from XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) last week ended two consecutive weeks of inflows, signalling softer institutional demand and adding downward pressure. Ripple (XRP) is extending its losses on Monday, trading below $1.09 following a decline of more than 10% last week. With deteriorating metrics and an adverse macroeconomic environment also restricting the scope for a recovery, bears are increasingly focusing on the psychological $1 level.

Institutional demand loses momentum

Last week’s net outflows of $529,510 from XRP spot ETFs marked a cooling in institutional demand, according to SoSoValue data. The withdrawals followed two consecutive weeks of net inflows. Should outflows persist and gather pace through this week, XRP could face further pressure and a deeper price correction.

Deteriorating metrics restrain XRP

At 0.91 on Monday, CoinGlass’ XRP long-to-short ratio was approaching its lowest reading in over a month. Readings below one point to bearish sentiment, with traders positioning for asset prices to decline.

A similarly bearish picture for Ripple emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders and selling dominance are evident in both XRP’s spot and futures markets. Conditions in the spot market are also heating up, underscoring a cautious, bearish bias among Ripple traders.

Macroeconomic backdrop limits XRP

Last week’s stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures put risk assets under pressure by strengthening expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could leave interest rates higher for longer. Holding non-yielding assets such as XRP carries a greater opportunity cost when rates are higher, while investor appetite for riskier investments diminishes. 

The probability of a December Fed rate rise priced in by traders now stands at about 78.7%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, compared with 72.8% before the US jobs report. These macroeconomic conditions could remain a constraint on XRP’s recovery prospects.

XRP technical outlook: Bears focus on psychological $1 level

Trading well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are grouped between $1.302 and $1.360, XRP retains a bearish short-term bias. Its price stands at $1.095 at the time of writing on Monday.

A daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 26 places XRP in oversold territory, suggesting the decline is stretched. However, continued selling pressure is confirmed by the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram as the price consolidates close to recent lows.

Any sustained rebound faces a series of resistance levels. The first is at $1.160, ahead of stronger supply at $1.300 and the 50-day EMA at $1.302. Further barriers lie at the 100-day EMA of $1.307 and the 200-day EMA of $1.360.

The closest significant support below the market lies at the psychological $1.000 level, which buyers would be expected to defend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)