Solana Price Forecast: SOL's long-term trendline faces mounting pressure as warning signs develop

• Following losses of over 6% the previous day, Solana is testing a long-term support trendline on Friday while trading below $90.
• Roughly $40 million in liquidations on Thursday, alongside falling SOL futures open interest, points to sellers retaining control.
• Thursday’s $1.18 million in withdrawals added to sustained selling pressure on SOL ETFs, following last week’s record weekly outflow of $71.47 million.

Liquidations across the broader cryptocurrency market exceeded $1 billion as Solana (SOL) lost over 6% the previous day, leaving it trading below $90.00 at a two-month low on Friday. Falling open interest in derivatives markets indicates waning trader interest in Solana. Meanwhile, institutional investors pulled $1.18 million from SOL-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), adding to last week’s record outflow of $71.47 million. 

A break below horizontal support at $87.21 could, from a technical standpoint, leave Solana vulnerable to further losses towards the $70.00 round-number level.

Solana’s appeal weakens among retail and institutional investors

Macroeconomic uncertainty is weighing on sentiment across the cryptocurrency market, reducing both institutional and retail investors’ appetite for Solana. A Democratic sweep of the US midterms, alongside the ongoing AI debt crises, is fuelling risk aversion. 

After three consecutive days without flows, SOL-focused ETFs registered withdrawals of $1.18 million on Thursday. The pause suggests institutional investors had taken a breather following last week’s $71.47 million in withdrawals, the largest weekly outflow and the fourth consecutive week of net withdrawals.

Among retail traders, positions have been unwound so far this week: CoinGlass puts SOL futures open interest (OI) at 59.45 million SOL, compared with 62.71 million on Monday. Of Thursday’s $42.87 million in total liquidations, long positions accounted for $39.37 million, showing that buy-side positions made up the bulk of liquidations as sellers reasserted control.

With ETF withdrawals and lower OI signalling weaker interest in Solana, downside risks could intensify further.

Technical outlook: Solana risks further losses towards $70

At the time of writing on Friday, Solana stands at $89.65 and remains on course for its sixth consecutive weekly decline. Trading below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $99.62 keeps SOL’s near-term outlook bearish. Meanwhile, the falling 50-day EMA at $101.92 risks slipping beneath the 200-day EMA, potentially producing a Death Cross signal.

Around $89.83, SOL is testing a long-term ascending support trendline linking the lows of June 6 and 25. Should a break below that line be confirmed, horizontal support at $87.21 could come under pressure, opening the way for a sharper correction towards the $70.58 floor last tested on August 1.

Daily momentum indicators also favour the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 29, close to oversold territory, while the falling Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory beneath its signal line.

If the support trendline prompts a rebound, the first upside test could be the 200-day EMA at $99.62, with the 50-day EMA at $101.92 next in view.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)