USD/CHF Price Forecast: Key support at 0.8225 remains exposed following rejection at 0.8270

Below 0.8250 on Tuesday, USD/CHF gives back Monday's gains.
Expectations that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at next week's meeting weigh on the US dollar.
A double top around 0.8390 would be confirmed by a breach of 0.8225.

With a Federal Reserve (Fed) pause anticipated next week, the US dollar (USD) gives back Monday's advance against the Swiss franc (CHF) on Tuesday. Worries over a possible AI bubble also weigh on the greenback. Having met resistance at 0.8270, USD/CHF falls towards session lows near 0.8440, leaving bears focused on the lower end of the monthly trading range around 0.8225.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

An 82% probability of unchanged rates at next week's meeting is now indicated by the CME’s FedWatch Tool, compared with 42% a month earlier. Despite stronger-than-expected inflation readings in recent weeks, investors are reducing long US dollar positions on the assumption that the Fed will not raise interest rates at its October meeting.

Growing doubts over the AI sector's profitability are adding to the pressure on the greenback on Tuesday. According to analysts at MUFG, foreign investors bought “USD 942 billion of US equities in the twelve months to July,” supporting demand for the US dollar in FX markets. However, the bank's experts caution that “this dynamic also leaves the USD more exposed to a reversal if sentiment towards AI deteriorates.”

Switzerland's trade surplus fell to CHF 1.309 billion in September, compared with an upwardly revised CHF 4.185 billion in August, figures published earlier on Tuesday showed. A sharp rise in imports outweighed a more modest increase in exports, although the CHF showed little response to the data.

Technical Analysis: USD/CHF Develops a Potential Double Top

At 0.8244, USD/CHF remains in a modest downtrend, judging by recent price movements. On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 38.43. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has edged into positive territory, signalling that downward momentum is easing without a decisive reversal yet.

The 0.8225 support zone is the next objective for bears. Marking the lows of 2 and 16 October, it also forms the neckline of a Double Top pattern just below 0.8400. This formation commonly signals a trend change and would give sellers greater confidence to challenge the lows of 16 and 22 September around 0.8180. The measured downside objective of the Double Top lies near 0.8070, at the 9 September low.

For bulls, a move above the session high of 0.8270 is needed to clear a path towards former support, now resistance, around 0.8315. Beyond that lies the previously noted top in the 0.8390 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Swiss Franc Performs Best Against the Euro Today

Against the euro, the Swiss franc recorded its strongest performance today. The table below sets out today's percentage changes in the Swiss franc (CHF) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.05%	-0.23%	-0.21%	-0.46%	-0.12%	-0.29%	-0.27%
EUR	-0.05%		-0.29%	-0.23%	-0.50%	-0.16%	-0.34%	-0.31%
GBP	0.23%	0.29%		0.08%	-0.21%	0.15%	-0.04%	-0.02%
JPY	0.21%	0.23%	-0.08%		-0.28%	0.08%	-0.12%	-0.08%
CAD	0.46%	0.50%	0.21%	0.28%		0.35%	0.17%	0.19%
AUD	0.12%	0.16%	-0.15%	-0.08%	-0.35%		-0.18%	-0.15%
NZD	0.29%	0.34%	0.04%	0.12%	-0.17%	0.18%		0.03%
CHF	0.27%	0.31%	0.02%	0.08%	-0.19%	0.15%	-0.03%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Swiss franc on the left and following its row across to the US dollar gives the percentage change for CHF (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.