WTI Price Forecast: Middle East tensions keep bulls in charge above $95.00 support

• Following the previous day’s sharp swings in both directions, WTI finds renewed buying interest.
• Uncertainty in the Middle East supports prices by sustaining the geopolitical risk premium.
• Fresh bullish positions in the commodity call for caution given the technical picture.

With the $99.00 level proving difficult to clear, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, draws renewed buying interest in Wednesday’s Asian session but struggles to extend its advance. As traders wait for further news on the Middle East crisis, prices remain below the previous day’s peak, which was the highest since 16 September.

A diplomat involved in US-Iran negotiations challenged reports that an agreement was close, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. Separately, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told Pakistan’s Army Chief, Asim Munir, that gaining Iran’s trust would require the US to fulfil previously stated conditions. These included an end to all hostilities and the unfreezing of Iran’s assets. Together, these developments sustain the geopolitical risk premium and underpin crude prices.

Concerns about crude supply disruptions also intensified after Iran’s First Vice President said the country had no alternative but to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. This helped oil extend its overnight recovery from the weekly low. Gains remain limited, however, following an unconfirmed report on Tuesday that Qatar and Pakistan had put forward a compromise plan to the US and Iran that satisfied both sides’ demands. Bullish traders therefore have reason to remain cautious.

Holding above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart leaves the commodity’s near-term outlook tilted to the upside. The overnight rebound also confirmed firm support around $95.00, the former resistance level, reinforcing the wider uptrend. Momentum has nevertheless moderated: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has moved further below both zero and its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 59.76, has retreated from earlier overbought levels.

Consolidation, rather than a clear reversal, is suggested by this technical picture. Any sizeable decline may therefore continue to attract solid support around the psychological $95.00 level. Below that, structural support lies at the 100-period SMA near $92.26. Within the prevailing bullish backdrop, buyers would be expected to regain control there if a deeper pullback develops.

There is still scope for further gains if bullish momentum revives. Oil could then advance towards the psychological $100.00 level before testing the overnight swing high around the round figure of 101.00. That high could prove a key resistance point; a break above it would be viewed as a fresh bullish trigger, opening the way for the uptrend of the past two weeks or so to continue.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI Price Action on the 4-Hour Chart