Inflation data and tech earnings in focus as Dow Jones futures rise

Inflation signals from key CPI data are in focus. Traders are also watching CoreWeave’s forthcoming results for indications of wider AI demand.
After broad-based semiconductor strength drove Monday’s sharp rally, Wall Street looks to extend its momentum.
A decline of over 4% hit Nvidia shares as controversy surrounding its CEO fuelled concerns about tighter AI chip export restrictions.

0.48% is the gain in Dow Jones futures during Tuesday’s European trading hours. The contract trades near 52,750. S&P 500 futures are up 0.17% at around 7,590, while Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.15% at roughly 27,970.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Ahead of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, US equity futures showed a mixed performance. Forecasts put the monthly increase in headline CPI at 0.3%, half September’s 0.6% rise. Core CPI is projected to ease from 0.3% to 0.2%.

Annual comparisons will be missing from the release. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not report 12-month percentage changes for the October 2026 indexes, as the federal government shutdown prevented the collection of October 2025 data. Standard annual headline and core inflation readings will therefore be unavailable. With the inflation picture incomplete, investors have placed additional emphasis on neocloud company CoreWeave’s forthcoming results as a key gauge of momentum in the artificial intelligence sector.

Monday’s regular session had delivered a strong rebound before the cautious trading tone emerged. The Dow advanced 2.15%, the S&P 500 gained 2.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.74%. Semiconductors spearheaded the recovery from last week’s heavy selling. That sell-off followed concerns that AI oversight could tighten and data centre expansion could face delays after Democrats won control of Congress.

Company-specific pressures nevertheless restrained sentiment, with Nvidia particularly affected. The chipmaker’s shares fell over 4% after CEO Jensen Huang acknowledged an alleged affair with a suspected Chinese spy. The disclosure raised concerns that lawmakers might seek tougher export controls on the company’s hardware.

US equities recover with technology and semiconductors in front

The recovery in US stocks is reversing some losses from the post-Midterm election sell-off, according to Rabobank analysts. They observe that, after "collapsing 4.4% in one day last week following the US Midterm elections, the S&P 500 is starting to show signs of recovery, having moved 3% higher, back to pre-November 4 levels." Rabobank also highlights a substantial bounce in the technology-heavy Nasdaq, noting that, "despite the unfortunate headlines surrounding Jensen Huang, the Nasdaq also made a strong recovery, having moved 5% higher over the past two sessions, supported by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which managed to work its way more than 11% higher."

AI stocks: key questions

Artificial intelligence: the core concept

At its core, artificial intelligence is an academic field focused on replicating human cognitive functions, logical understanding, perception and pattern recognition in machines. Known as AI, it encompasses artificial neural networks, machine learning or predictive analytics, symbolic reasoning, deep learning, natural language processing, speech recognition, image recognition and expert systems. The field’s ultimate objective is artificial general intelligence, or AGI: a machine capable of solving arbitrary problems without having been trained to address them.

AI applications and their uses

Artificial intelligence serves a wide range of purposes. Among the best-known applications are generative AI platforms trained on large language models (LLMs) to respond to text-based questions, including ChatGPT and Google’s Bard platform. User-written text prompts allow another programme, Midjourney, to create original images. Other AI systems apply probabilistic methods to assess an entity’s characteristics or how it is perceived. Upstart’s lending platform, for example, uses an AI-enhanced credit rating system to assess applicants’ creditworthiness, searching the internet for information about their careers, wealth profiles and relationships. In pharmaceutical research, AI draws on large databases of scientific studies to propose new potential medicines for laboratory testing. Content aggregators such as YouTube, Spotify and Facebook collect and organise information about viewing habits, using AI applications to recommend personalised content.

Stocks with exposure to AI

Among companies operating in AI, Nvidia (NVDA) manufactures AI-focused semiconductor chips and develops some of the platforms engineers use to create AI applications. Supporters often regard it as a supplier of the essential tools for the AI revolution, providing what is needed to develop further applications. Another company, Palantir Technologies (PLTR), specialises in “big data” analytics. Its substantial contracts with the US intelligence community involve the Gotham platform, which helps users examine data, identify intelligence leads and recognise patterns. Large corporations use its Foundry product to monitor employee and customer data for predictive analytics and anomaly detection. Microsoft (MSFT), meanwhile, owns a substantial stake in OpenAI, the privately held creator of ChatGPT. OpenAI’s technology has been incorporated into Microsoft’s Bing search engine.

AI and the risk of another stock market bubble

AI-related shares began climbing after ChatGPT became publicly available in late 2022. Over the six months after its release, Nvidia alone rose well over 200%, prompting immediate questions from Wall Street commentators about whether another technology bubble was taking hold. Renowned investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has held large positions in both Palantir and Nvidia, argued that bubbles never last just six months. In his view, if enthusiasm for AI did turn into a bubble, extreme valuations would persist for at least two and a half years or longer, as they did during the DotCom bubble of the late 1990s. By mid-2023, the best assessment was that the market was not in a bubble, at least for the time being. Nvidia was then valued at 27 times forward sales, but analysts forecast exceptionally strong revenue growth for years ahead. For comparison, the NASDAQ 100 stood at 60 times earnings at the DotCom bubble’s peak, versus 25 times earnings in mid-2023.