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6% CPI threshold: India’s RBI expected to raise rates if breached – Commerzbank
Commerzbank Research forecasts India’s October CPI inflation above 6% year-on-year. High Oil prices, robust domestic demand and an unfavourable base are expected to drive the increase. Further rate rises are implied by RBI’s projections, which, the report notes, put inflation close to the upper end of its target band through mid-2027. OIS pricing points to nearly 90bp of cumulative tightening by February 2027.
Persistent inflation points to further RBI tightening
"It is expected to climb further and could well exceed 6% you compared to 5.5% in September."
"More worryingly for RBI, this low base effect will persist into November and December, which is likely to keep inflation elevated above 6.0% throughout Q4 2026."
"In the October review, RBI projected inflation at 6% in Q4 2026, and for it stay firm for the next two quarters, at 5.7% in Q1 2027 and 5.6% in Q2 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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