102.50 in Focus: US Dollar Index Price Forecast Looks to Symmetrical Triangle Top

• 102.50 is a potential test for the United States Dollar Index at the symmetrical triangle’s upper boundary.
• At around 58, the 14-day Relative Strength Index points to sustained upward momentum.
• At 102.01, the nine-day EMA provides the first support level.

102.40 is the approximate level of the US Dollar Index (DXY) during Wednesday’s European session. The index, which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is advancing for a second consecutive day.

Trading above the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) keeps the DXY’s near-term outlook bullish and supports both its short- and medium-term trends. Around 58, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains positive without reaching extreme levels. This points to sustained upward momentum, rather than an overstretched rally.

On the daily chart, the dollar index continues to trade inside a symmetrical triangle. The technical pattern points to consolidation ahead of a potential upside or downside breakout.

Around 102.50, the symmetrical triangle’s upper boundary could be tested by the DXY. Beyond that lies 102.94, the 19-month high recorded on 14 October.

Initial downside support for the US Dollar Index may emerge at 102.01, the nine-day EMA. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA of 101.41, then the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary near 101.20. A fall through this confluence of support would turn the bias bearish and leave the dollar index under pressure towards the area around 98.56, the nearly six-month low recorded on 20 August.

Goolsbee’s ‘real inflation issue’ warning strengthens hawkish Fed tone and Dollar support

An FXS Speechtracker score of 8/10, against an established baseline of 6.8/10, marked a distinctly more hawkish tone from the Fed’s Goolsbee and highlighted growing concern over persistent price pressures. He described the latest CPI as “borderline disturbing,” said services inflation is “not coming down,” and warned of “a real inflation issue” that the Fed is “going to have to deal with”. Together, these remarks signal less tolerance for upside inflation surprises and maintain a high threshold for near-term policy easing. His references to overheating prices across “a whole bunch of things” came alongside a description of the job market as “steady and stable”. He also warned that inflation becoming embedded in expectations would be a “major concern,” reinforcing a preference for keeping policy restrictive or even tightening it further. That combination typically supports the Dollar while weighing on risk-sensitive FX.

A 1.69-point increase took the FXS Fed Sentiment Index to 145.61, keeping it firmly in hawkish territory and in line with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score. The rise suggests markets should interpret Goolsbee’s remarks as an incremental hawkish shift in the Fed’s reaction function, tilting risks towards expectations of tighter policy for longer.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)