US JOLTS Job Openings: Robust Labour Demand Expected to Reinforce Fed Rate Hike Bets

7.28 million is the forecast for US JOLTS job openings in May. That would mark a decline but remain above the 2025 average.
Markets will scrutinise Job Openings figures for confirmation of expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates.
13-month lows remain within reach as EUR/USD stays under pressure.

14:00 GMT on Tuesday is the scheduled release time for May’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the report compiles employers’ estimates of vacancies, hires and separations across the country. Markets monitor it closely because it usually precedes a series of employment indicators during the week, ending with the key Nonfarm Payrolls report.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

With inflation continuing to climb well above the central bank’s target, markets are reassessing the likelihood of interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). That makes Tuesday’s May JOLTS release particularly important.

Despite the recent fall in Crude prices, inflationary pressures persist, while considerable uncertainty surrounds the Middle East conflict. The Fed’s renewed commitment to tackling inflation has raised investors’ hopes for at least one rate increase this year. Against this backdrop, this week’s labour market releases could be crucial in gauging when monetary policy will next change. They could also trigger renewed volatility in the US Dollar (USD).

7.28 million openings forecast for May JOLTS

At 7.28 million, the market consensus for May job openings points to a modest retreat from April’s 7.61 million, the highest reading since July 2024. It would nevertheless be a solid result, significantly exceeding the 2025 average of 7.08 million openings. Confirmation of those figures would likely support the view that the US labour market is stabilising and reinforce the narrative of US economic exceptionalism.

Little changed in quits, layoffs and discharges in April, but JOLTS job openings exceeded expectations. Vacancies rose 4.6% month on month, representing 731,000 new openings, from 6.88 million in March.

May’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report also showed 172K new jobs, rounding off an impressive three-month performance through May. The figures strengthened market confidence in the US economy’s resilience to the Middle East war. They also enabled Fed policymakers to set aside labour market concerns and concentrate entirely on above-target inflation when shaping near-term policy. Investors have consequently increased bets on some monetary tightening in the coming months.

Fed target rate probabilities July 2026 — Data source: CME Group's FedWatch Tool

Futures markets now imply a 30% probability of a rate increase at next month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The probability of monetary tightening in September exceeds 60%. Those readings have risen from 6% and 20%, respectively, a month earlier. This week’s employment data will be assessed against those expectations.

15:00 GMT JOLTS release puts EUR/USD near 13-month lows in focus

Tuesday’s Job Openings release is due at 15:00 GMT. Trading relatively close to its 13-month lows, EUR/USD is heading for a 2.17% fall in June and a decline of nearly 3% over the past two months.

With the US economy continuing to outpace the Eurozone and Iran’s war weighing on risk appetite, FXStreet analyst Guillermo Alcalá sees a downside bias in the pair: “The Euro has remained vulnerable over the last two months amid geopolitical woes and a sluggish economic growth in the Eurozone. Unless the scenario changes significantly, Euro rallies are likely to offer good entry opportunities for sellers. The 13-month low at 1.1325 remains the key support level. Further down, bears might be tempted to revisit the late May 2025 low at 1.1210.”

Alcala identifies resistance at 1.1500 and 1.1620-1.1640 as the principal obstacles to an advance: “The pair is struggling to consolidate above 1.1400 at the time of writing in a rebound from the mentioned 13-month lows, which, so far, seems corrective. Bulls should break the 1.1500 area (June 8,11 lows) and preferably also the area between 1.1620 and 1.1640, where late May and early June highs meet the descending trendline from the year-to-date (YTD) highs, to break the negative structure.”

Central banks: key questions

Price stability: the central bank’s role

Maintaining stable prices within a country or region is a central bank’s core mandate. As prices of goods and services fluctuate, economies face inflation or deflation. Persistent increases in the prices of the same goods constitute inflation; persistent declines constitute deflation. By adjusting its policy rate, a central bank seeks to keep demand in check. Major institutions, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE), have a mandate to keep inflation close to 2%.

Policy rates: responding to inflation above or below target

Adjusting the benchmark policy rate, commonly called the interest rate, is a central bank’s key tool for raising or lowering inflation. At previously announced times, it publishes a statement setting out the rate and explaining why it has been held, cut or increased. Domestic banks then adjust their savings and lending rates. In turn, this makes it easier or harder for individuals to earn a return on savings and for companies to borrow and invest in their businesses. Substantial interest rate increases are known as monetary tightening. Reductions in the benchmark rate are known as monetary easing.

Monetary policy: who sets interest rates?

Political independence is common among central banks. Before taking a seat on a policy board, prospective members undergo a series of panel reviews and hearings. Each typically holds a particular view on controlling inflation and the monetary policy required. Those favouring very loose policy, low rates and inexpensive borrowing to provide a substantial economic boost, while accepting inflation slightly above 2%, are known as ‘doves’. By contrast, ‘hawks’ favour higher rates to reward savers and seek to contain inflation at all times. They remain focused on bringing it to, or just below, 2%.

Central bank leadership: the chair’s responsibilities

A chair or president usually presides over each meeting and works to build agreement between hawks and doves. If votes are evenly divided on a policy adjustment, the chair has the final say to prevent a 50-50 tie. Speeches by the chair, often available to follow live, communicate the current policy stance and outlook. Central banks aim to implement monetary policy without provoking sharp swings in rates, equities or their currencies. Ahead of a policy meeting, all members signal their views to markets. Public comment is then prohibited from a few days before the meeting until the new policy has been announced. This restriction is known as the blackout period.

Economic Data Indicator

JOLTS Job Openings: Vacancy Data

To measure vacancies, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts the JOLTS Job Openings survey. Each month, it gathers information from employers across retail, manufacturing and a range of offices.

View further details.

Upcoming release: Tue 30 Jun 2026 14:00

Release frequency: Monthly

Consensus forecast: 7.28M

Prior reading: 7.618M

Data source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics