Below $83.00: WTI Price Forecast as oil hits fresh low since late August on Iran peace hopes

Second Day of WTI Losses as Iran Diplomacy Hopes Build.
Conflicting signals on US-Iran peace negotiations may cushion oil against further declines.
200-Day SMA and 50% Fibo. Break Reinforces Downside Risk.

WTI falls below $84.00. Heavy selling in West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Crude Oil benchmark, continues for a second consecutive day, taking prices to their lowest since late August in the first half of Tuesday’s European session. Expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement are a key source of pressure. They also strengthen the case for an extension of the recent sharp retreat from just above $104.00, a level reached last month that marked the highest price since May 18.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Optimism about a diplomatic end to the US-Iran war increased after US President Donald Trump reported positive momentum towards ending the war on Iran. He described renewed strikes as quite unlikely and declared the conflict effectively over. Those remarks are seen as putting downward pressure on crude prices. Geopolitical risk persists, however. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, rejected reports of active negotiations as fake news and reiterated that Washington must accept Tehran’s seven conditions for ending the conflict. A weak US Dollar (USD) could nevertheless provide some support for oil, with traders awaiting US consumer inflation figures for fresh direction.

The intraday break beneath the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $85.48 could provide a fresh bearish trigger. Momentum readings also favour further weakness. The Relative Strength Index is around 33, close to oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is extending further into negative territory, signalling that sellers retain control. The next notable support lies at the 61.8% retracement near $81.11. Below that, potential cushions are the 78.6% level around $74.89 and the previous swing-low area near $66.96, where a deeper correction could attempt to stabilise the broader uptrend.

For any recovery, the first resistance stands near $85.48 at the 50% retracement, with the 200-day SMA at $86.31 just above it. A stronger supply zone begins around the 38.2% retracement at $89.85, extending towards the 23.6% level at $95.26 and the recent cycle peak around $104.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)