Cardano Price Forecast: Bearish dominance confirmed by derivatives and on-chain data

• Cardano trades below $0.202 on Monday. Losses deepen following three consecutive weeks of declines.
• Further downside is supported by softer derivatives positioning and bearish on-chain signals.
• With bears dictating momentum, the technical picture points to a greater risk of a sharper correction.

Cardano (ADA) trades below $0.202 on Monday. The latest losses follow three consecutive weeks of declines exceeding 20% since early October. Downside risks remain as selling pressure intensifies, with weaker derivatives metrics, bearish on-chain signals and a worsening technical picture.

Cardano derivatives signal further downside risk

At 0.70 on Monday, CoinGlass’ ADA long-to-short ratio is approaching its lowest reading in over a month. The derivatives figures point to a bearish bias for Cardano. Readings below one reflect negative sentiment, with traders positioning for asset prices to decline.

Monday also saw Cardano’s funding rate turn negative to -0.0032%. Short positions are therefore paying long positions, another indication of a bearish outlook.

Cardano on-chain signals favour caution

Caution is evident in CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders coincide with overheating conditions in ADA futures, while sellers dominate both spot and futures markets. Together, these signals suggest Cardano traders retain a cautious, bearish bias.

$0.201: Cardano technical outlook remains bearish

At $0.201 on Monday, Cardano remains below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). These are grouped between roughly $0.218 and $0.237, sustaining the bearish near-term bias.

Immediate resistance now lies around $0.213, the level of the failed upward trendline break. At 33, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just above oversold territory. This suggests continued downside pressure, though brief corrective rebounds remain a risk. A negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading adds to the bearish picture: its line sits below the signal line and retains a flat bearish profile. This supports the view that the cluster of EMAs overhead is likely to limit rallies.

Any recovery first faces the former trendline break near $0.213. The next resistance levels are the 100-day EMA at $0.218 and the 50-day EMA at $0.224. Higher up, horizontal resistance stands at $0.236 and $0.245. The 200-day EMA at $0.237 adds supply within that area, with a more distant resistance level at $0.299.

Structural support lies considerably lower, around $0.081 at the earlier downward trendline break. This leaves ADA vulnerable, with no intervening technical floor between current prices and that deeper support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)