$100.50: WTI Extends Slide Below This Level; Bullish Potential Appears Intact | Price Forecast

Hopes of reduced hostilities in the Middle East weigh on WTI as the week begins.
A confrontation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia keeps the geopolitical risk premium intact.
A favourable technical backdrop suggests buyers could emerge on dips to lower levels.

WTI slips below the mid-$100.00s in Asian trading. Extending its decline after opening the week with a bearish gap lower, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Crude Oil benchmark, moves further away from Friday’s five-month high. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty, however, appears to limit the scope for further losses.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Hopes of easing Middle East tensions trigger some crude oil selling at the start of the week after US President Donald Trump ruled out immediate military action against Iran on Sunday. Earlier, Trump had suggested the US might need to finish the job or potentially strike a deal with Tehran, as Iranian and Houthi threats against American interests in the region increased.

The geopolitical risk premium nevertheless remains supported by stalled US-Iran talks, which could underpin crude oil prices. An unnamed US official told an Israeli news channel that Trump was ready to change course on Iran, with military strikes apparently becoming a matter of when rather than if. On Sunday, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen also threatened to continue attacking Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid Airport in Riyadh.

Trading above both the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from the monthly low, crude oil maintains a bullish near-term technical bias. A mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading sits just above the zero line. The Relative Strength Index, meanwhile, is near 55, signalling steady upward momentum.

For any further decline, initial support could emerge around $99.30, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Below that, the 50-period SMA near $97.83 and the 38.2% retracement at $96.84 combine to create a broader demand zone on pullbacks. The first upside barrier lies around $103.29 at the Fibonacci anchor. A sustained move above it would clear the path for the recent, well-established uptrend to extend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

4-hour WTI chart

WTI Oil: Key Questions

WTI Oil: What Does It Mean?

Traded internationally, WTI Oil is a variety of Crude Oil originating in the United States. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate and is one of three major crude types, alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. Its relatively low gravity earns it the description “light”, while its low sulphur content makes it “sweet”. These qualities make it a high-quality oil that is straightforward to refine. Distribution runs through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. WTI serves as an oil market benchmark, with its price regularly cited in media coverage.

WTI Oil Prices: The Main Drivers

Supply and demand determine WTI Oil prices, as they do for other assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand, while weaker growth can have the reverse effect. Supply disruptions caused by political instability, wars or sanctions can also affect prices. Another major influence is policy set by OPEC, the group of leading oil-producing countries. Because oil is mainly traded in US Dollars, the currency’s value matters too: a weaker US Dollar can make oil more affordable, while a stronger one can do the opposite.

Weekly Inventory Data: The Impact on WTI Oil Prices

WTI Oil prices respond to weekly inventory releases from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA). Inventory movements capture shifts in supply and demand. A drawdown can signal stronger demand and lift prices; a build can point to greater supply and weigh on prices. The API publishes its report every Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of results tend to be close, differing by no more than 1% on 75% of occasions. As the EIA is a government agency, its figures are regarded as more reliable.

12 OPEC Members: Their Influence on WTI Oil Prices

At meetings held twice a year, the 12 oil-producing members of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) jointly set production quotas for member countries. These decisions frequently affect WTI Oil prices. Lower quotas can restrict supply and lift oil prices, whereas higher production has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ grouping adds ten non-OPEC members, with Russia the most notable.