Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds near $54.00 as bears maintain their grip

• Support at $53.00 has arrested the XAG/USD slide, though the pair is struggling to establish itself above $54.00.
• Lower oil prices are supporting precious metals, but prospects of additional global monetary tightening are limiting gains.
• An 11.5% decline over the past two weeks leaves the broader outlook tilted to the downside.

A 2% retreat in oil prices has offered precious metals some support, leaving Silver (XAG/USD) little changed in a narrow range around $54.00 on Monday. Investors remain on the sidelines ahead of Monday's monetary policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks. With a series of hawkish holds anticipated, attempts to push higher remain constrained.

The wider environment still favours the US Dollar, according to analysts at ING. They argue that “energy prices firm and expectations growing that the US and Israel will launch another attack on Iran” are likely to ensure that “central banks stay hawkish.”

ING's assessment is that “the balance of risks suggests that the dollar can probably hold onto its gains.” The bank's experts concede that “interest rate spreads have moved a little against the dollar as the recent US tech wobble has pared back Federal Reserve tightening expectations,” while noting that “energy prices remain at their highs, and the arrival of a third US aircraft carrier group in the Gulf makes further escalation in the Middle East more likely than not,” which strengthens the argument for continued Dollar resilience.

Technical Analysis: Silver Holds Near YTD Lows as Losses Consolidate

Although technical support has emerged for XAG/USD, the pair is struggling to move away from its year-to-date lows. On the 4-hour charts, the Relative Strength Index (14) is recovering from oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has only just edged into positive territory. Together, these momentum signals suggest a pause in the decline rather than a convincing bullish reversal.

Thursday's lows around $55.40 provide the first resistance. Beyond that lie the highs of 16, 20 and 21 October near $58.50, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel just under $60.00.

On the downside, sellers have yet to breach the $53.00 area, where Friday's session low coincides with the lower boundary of the descending channel. A move below this zone would bring the psychological $50.00 level into focus, followed by the late November 2025 low around $48.70 as the next downside target.

(An AI tool assisted in the preparation of this story's technical analysis. Find out more.)