Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP face selling pressure with no clear signs of a bottom

  • Selling pressure takes Bitcoin towards the lower support zone near $73,000 on Thursday as ETF outflows continue.
  • Bearish pressure on Ethereum intensifies as institutional capital exits, with the spot price holding just above $2,000.
  • Further losses below $1.00 remain a risk for XRP as weakening momentum indicators add to the downside pressure.

Bearish conditions persist across Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) on Thursday, with BTC correcting towards a crucial support zone near $73,000. While ETH, the smart contract token, remains above its $2,000 demand zone, technical weakness in the remittance token XRP increases the likelihood of a correction below $1.00.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Macroeconomic uncertainty and risk aversion following the Binance hack, which affected roughly $6.3 billion, have sharply dampened demand for cryptocurrencies and related assets over the past few weeks.

Risk aversion across the wider market is reflected in Thursday’s Fear & Greed Index reading of 28, within Fear territory and only marginally below the previous day’s 29.

Why do crypto ETFs continue to see capital outflows?

Continued withdrawals from Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are likely to keep prices under pressure and leave sellers in control. According to SoSoValue, Wednesday’s outflows of approximately $300 million extended the bearish run to five days. Cumulative inflows consequently edged down to $55.1 billion, while net assets under management average $93.7 billion.

Flows into and out of Bitcoin ETFs | Source: SoSoValue

In Tuesday’s ‘Ahead of the Curve’ report, K33 Research said: “Volumes remain below levels observed during previous price expansions and market bottoms, suggesting limited buying interest as BTC trades near two-month lows,”

Withdrawals from Ethereum spot ETFs accelerated to $145 million on Wednesday, compared with just $1.3 million a day earlier. Following this fifth consecutive day of outflows, cumulative inflows stand at $11.6 billion and net assets at $11.7 billion.

Flows into and out of ETH ETFs | Source: SoSoValue

Activity in XRP spot ETFs was subdued on Wednesday, following withdrawals over two successive days: $7.6 million on Tuesday and $10.4 million on Monday. Net assets stand at $1.2 billion, while cumulative inflows average $1.8 billion.

Flows into and out of XRP ETFs | Source: SoSoValue

Technical analysis: Can Bitcoin withstand mounting selling pressure?

A near-term bearish bias persists for Bitcoin at $73,561, with the price below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), located at $78,695, $77,411 and 7$6,736, respectively. Further overhead resistance comes from the SuperTrend line at $80,128, well above the spot price, underscoring the multiple trend barriers limiting gains.

Despite scope for brief relief rallies, momentum indicators continue to point to sellers retaining the upper hand. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 34, sits just above oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative.

Chart Analysis BTC/USDT (Binance)
Daily chart for BTC/USDT

For buyers to reduce the prevailing bearish pressure, Bitcoin would need to regain a closely packed resistance band. This begins with the 200-day EMA near $76,736, followed by the 100-day EMA at $77,411 and the 50-day EMA around $78,695. Beyond these averages, the SuperTrend level at $80,128 presents a wider structural obstacle. A sustained move above that barrier would be needed to suggest BTC is emerging from its current corrective phase.

Ethereum technical analysis: Can ETH defend crucial support?

The short-term outlook for Ethereum remains bearish as it trades at $2,047, continuing its decline beneath all major moving averages. A concentrated overhead supply zone comprises the 200-day EMA near $2,296, the 100-day EMA around $2,321, the SuperTrend line at roughly $2,322 and the 50-day EMA close to $2,335, all above the current price.

Although oversold conditions could moderate the decline, momentum does not yet point to a reversal. The RSI is around 29, while the MACD remains below zero with a negative latest reading.

Daily chart for ETH/USDT

The first resistance is near $2,240, where the former rising trendline was breached, followed by the 200-day EMA at $2,296. Above this, the 100-day EMA at $2,321 and the SuperTrend at $2,322 create a closely aligned hurdle ahead of the 50-day EMA at $2,335. Medium-term recovery prospects remain constrained while the price stays below the latter average.

ETH first needs to regain the $2,240-$2,296 zone to reduce immediate selling pressure and create room for a more durable rebound towards the cluster of daily moving averages. The daily chart, meanwhile, offers no clearly defined structural support levels.

Technical analysis: Is XRP heading towards $1.00?

The bearish phase in XRP continues at $1.04, far beneath the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs of $1.27, $1.29 and $1.34, respectively. Following the recent break below the descending trendline’s key level near $1.27, the pair remains capped and the downtrend intact. The SuperTrend at $1.21 provides an additional overhead supply barrier.

Heavy selling pressure is evident in the RSI’s slide to around 23, within oversold territory, although a brief rebound remains possible. Momentum is also weak on the MACD, which is below zero, with its signal line and histogram remaining negative.

Daily chart for XRP/USDT

A recovery would first encounter the SuperTrend resistance around $1.21, before reaching a concentrated set of technical barriers in the $1.27-$1.27 zone, where the 50-day EMA intersects the broken descending trendline. Further overhead, the 100-day EMA at $1.29 and the 200-day EMA near $1.34 represent broader bearish hurdles. Regaining these levels would be necessary to soften the current downside bias.

Further losses remain a risk because the daily chart shows no significant support close to the current price. That vulnerability would persist unless the oversold RSI prompts a corrective rebound towards the resistance band outlined above.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Crypto ETFs: Frequently asked questions

Investors use an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) to gain exposure to a particular asset. This investment vehicle or index follows the price of an underlying asset, but its scope can also extend to a basket of assets and sectors rather than a single holding. A Bitcoin ETF, for instance, follows the price of Bitcoin.

Yes. In October 2021, approval for the first US Bitcoin futures ETF came from the US Securities & Exchange Commission. Seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have secured approval in total, while more than 20 are still awaiting regulatory permission. Over the past few years, the SEC has delayed crypto-related futures ETFs, citing the cryptocurrency industry’s nascent nature and susceptibility to manipulation.

Yes. Several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds received SEC approval for listing and trading in January 2024. The move enabled institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the leading cryptocurrency, prompting the industry to hail the decision as a game changer.

Gaining cryptocurrency exposure without owning it is the principal benefit of crypto ETFs, as this reduces the risks and costs of holding the asset. Investors also face a gentler learning curve and benefit from greater security because the ETF handles the safeguarding of underlying holdings. The key drawback, however, is the absence of direct ownership of the asset, captured in the crypto saying “not your keys, not your coins.” Active management fees charged by ETFs can also increase the costs associated with holding crypto. Moreover, while ETF investment reduces the risks of holding an asset, fluctuations in the underlying cryptocurrency’s price are still likely to be mirrored in the fund.