WTI Price Forecast: Are Iran peace hopes driving prices below $83.00 to a fresh low since late August?

• Can WTI stem its second day of losses as hopes for Iran diplomacy grow?
• Conflicting signals on US-Iran peace talks may cushion crude oil against steeper declines.
• Does the break below the 200-day SMA and 50% Fibo. point to more downside?

Heavy selling pushed West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Crude Oil benchmark, below $84.00 in the first half of Tuesday’s European session, taking prices to their lowest since late August. The decline marks a second consecutive day of losses as hopes for a US-Iran peace agreement weigh on sentiment. These expectations strengthen the case for a continuation of the recent sharp pullback from just above $104.00, a level reached last month that marked the highest since May 18.

Optimism about a diplomatic end to the US-Iran war gained ground after US President Donald Trump cited positive momentum towards ending the war on Iran. He said renewed strikes were quite unlikely and declared the conflict effectively over, adding to downward pressure on crude oil prices. Geopolitical risks nevertheless persist. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, rejected reports of ongoing negotiations as fake news and reiterated that Washington must agree to Tehran’s seven conditions for ending the conflict. A softer US Dollar (USD), however, could offer the commodity some support, with traders awaiting US consumer inflation figures for fresh direction.

Bearish traders may view the intraday breach of the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement around $85.48 as a fresh trigger. Momentum readings also favour further weakness: the Relative Strength Index is hovering around 33, close to oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is extending further into negative territory. Together, these signals suggest sellers retain control. The next notable support lies near $81.11 at the 61.8% retracement. Below that, potential cushions are located around $74.89 at the 78.6% level and near the previous swing low of $66.96, where a deeper correction could attempt to stabilise the broader uptrend.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance near $85.48, the 50% retracement, with the 200-day SMA at $86.31 following closely. A more substantial supply zone begins around $89.85 at the 38.2% retracement and stretches towards $95.26, the 23.6% level, and the recent cycle high near $104.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI daily chart: Where are the key levels?