0.5560: Key Support Level for NZD/USD

0.5600 in sight as New Zealand Dollar rebounds against US Dollar after retesting 18-month low of 0.5564
Majorities in both the House and the Senate go to the Democrats.
October US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI releases are next on investors’ radar.

0.5600 is the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) trading level against the US Dollar (USD), holding its early recovery. During Wednesday’s European session, the Kiwi pair retains its rebound after retesting the 18-month low of 0.5564.

Uncertainty is expected to persist over the Kiwi pair’s outlook. Following the United States (US) midterm election results, which gave Democrats majorities in both the House and the Senate, the US Dollar has begun to recover.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

At the time of writing, a 0.34% decline leaves the US Dollar Index (DXY) near 101.55. The index, which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, has nonetheless rebounded substantially from its intraday low of 101.25.

With market participants already pricing in Democratic victories in both chambers of the federal legislature, the US Dollar had lagged over the past few weeks.

Due at 13:15 GMT, October’s US ADP Employment Change report will be a focus for investors. The US agency is expected to report 69K new private-sector hires, down from September’s 90K.

October’s US ISM Services PMI will draw financial markets’ attention later in the day. Expectations put the Services PMI at 54.8, slightly below the previous 54.9 reading.

0.5645 EMA Caps NZD/USD: Technical Analysis

At 0.5601 on the daily chart, NZD/USD retains a bearish near-term bias. Spot remains beneath the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5645. This short-term EMA is limiting gains, suggesting that rebounds are likely to face difficulty while the pair stays below it. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 37 also points to sustained downward pressure, though not to an oversold extreme.

The 20-period EMA near 0.5645 provides the first upside resistance. Only a sustained move above it would ease the prevailing bearish bias and open the way for a more substantial recovery. On the downside, the 18-month low of 0.5564 provides key support. A decisive breach of 0.5564 would leave 0.5500 exposed.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Data Indicator

ADP Employment Change Report

Released by Automatic Data Processing Inc., the largest US payroll processor, ADP Employment Change tracks changes in the number of people employed in the US private sector. An increase generally supports consumer spending and stimulates economic growth. A high reading is therefore traditionally regarded as bullish for the US Dollar (USD); a low reading is considered bearish.

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Next publication: Wed 04 Nov 2026 13:15

Release frequency: Every month

Consensus forecast: 69K

Prior reading: 90K

Data source: ADP Research Institute

ADP employment data: why traders watch

ADP employment figures often signal what traders can expect from Nonfarm Payrolls. As America’s largest payroll provider, ADP publishes a report whose correlation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics release, usually issued two days later, makes it a widely watched precursor. Although the two series track each other closely overall, sizeable divergences can occur in individual months. FX traders also monitor ADP for the same reason they follow NFP: sustained, strong employment growth adds to inflationary pressure, increasing the likelihood of a Fed interest rate rise. A reading above consensus therefore tends to support the USD.