1.3500: GBP/USD may face key resistance on US NFP day

1.3425 is in view as the British Pound continues its correction against the US Dollar.
September’s US NFP figures are the focus of close investor attention.
25 bps was added to BoE interest rates on Thursday, taking them to 4%.

GBP/USD slips to around 1.3425. In Friday’s European session, the British Pound (GBP) continues to retreat against the US Dollar (USD) from 1.3500, an almost eight-week high. A US Dollar recovery is weighing on the pair ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October, due at 13:30 GMT.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

A 0.2% gain puts the US Dollar Index (DXY) near 101.77 at the time of writing. The index tracks the Greenback against six major currencies.

MUFG/BTMU analysts shift the focus to the employment release, highlighting that “attention turns to today’s US nonfarm payrolls report, with markets expecting 70k jobs added in October, up from 29k in September.” In their assessment, “stronger-than-expected JOLTS and ADP data suggest a better-than-expected US labour demand, raising the risk of further Fed tightening”.

Expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates are likely to be shaped by the US NFP release.

For sterling, Thursday brought the Bank of England’s (BoE) first interest rate increase of 2026. A rise of 25 basis points (bps) took rates to 4%. The increase had been anticipated as a response to accelerating inflationary pressures.

GBP/USD: Technical Outlook

At 1.3425 on the daily chart, GBP/USD maintains a positive short-term bias. It remains above both the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3372 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the latest decline at 1.3409. This suggests buyers are protecting higher levels. A reading of 57 on the Relative Strength Index (14) also favours the upside, indicating that positive momentum persists without reaching overbought territory.

The first upside barrier is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3472. Beyond that lie the 78.6% retracement around 1.3562 and the recent cycle high area near 1.3677. Initial downside support sits at the 50% retracement of 1.3409, followed by the 20-EMA at 1.3372. A steeper decline would bring the 38.2% level at 1.3345 and the 23.6% retracement near 1.3267 into focus, before the stronger demand zone around the 1.3140 cycle low.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Data Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls Report

Published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Nonfarm Payrolls report measures new jobs created across US non-agricultural businesses in the preceding month. Payroll changes can fluctuate sharply from month to month, and substantial revisions can also generate volatility in the foreign exchange market. A high reading is generally regarded as positive for the US Dollar (USD), whereas a low reading is considered negative. However, revisions to earlier months and the Unemployment Rate carry as much relevance as the headline number. The market response therefore hinges on investors’ assessment of the full set of data in the BLS report.

Find out more.

Next publication: Fri 6 November 2026 13:30

Publication frequency: Every month

Consensus forecast: 65K

Prior reading: 29K

Data source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Why traders watch the jobs report

The first Friday after the reporting month brings the US monthly jobs report. Forex traders regard it as the most important economic indicator. Policymakers track the change in employment closely because it correlates strongly with the economy’s overall performance. With full employment among its mandates, the Federal Reserve takes labour market developments into account when setting policy, which in turn affects currencies. Although several leading indicators inform forecasts, Nonfarm Payrolls often catch markets by surprise, generating substantial volatility. Readings above the consensus forecast tend to support the USD.