0.7000: AUD/USD stays above threshold; 100-day EMA pivotal ahead of RBA | Price Forecast

China’s disappointing official PMIs, released over the weekend, trigger renewed selling in AUD/USD.
Support for the USD from geopolitical uncertainty adds to the pressure on spot prices.
Ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision, technical signals suggest bears should remain cautious.

AUD/USD trades near 0.7020 as the new week begins. The pair is down around 0.15% on the day in the Asian session, although traders might hold back from new directional positions before Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision.

Persistent inflationary pressure underpins widespread expectations for a 25 basis point (bps) rate increase by the Australian central bank at the close of its November meeting. Weighing on the Aussie, however, are China’s disappointing official PMIs published over the weekend. Geopolitical uncertainty also supports the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), adding to selling pressure on AUD/USD.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

The recent recovery appears to be fading as AUD/USD trades below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7026 and remains constrained by the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7046. Momentum oscillators nevertheless retain a constructive bias. They point to consolidation rather than a clear breakdown, suggesting aggressive bearish positions warrant caution.

A marginally positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to the neutral 50 level. Should the pair slip below the psychological 0.7000 threshold, immediate support could emerge at 0.6976, the 23.6% retracement. A more pronounced decline would bring the structural low near 0.6894 into view, where buyers may seek to re-establish a medium-term floor.

For a rebound, the first resistance stands at 0.7026, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Beyond that lie the 50.0% level at 0.7067 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.7107. The wider supply zone is reinforced by the 78.6% barrier at 0.7165 and the cycle high at 0.7239.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD daily price chart

Economic release

RBA Policy Rate Decision

At the conclusion of each of its eight scheduled meetings a year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes its interest rate decision. A rate increase accompanied by a hawkish assessment of the economy’s inflation outlook is generally positive for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Conversely, an unchanged rate or a cut, alongside a dovish view of the Australian economy, is regarded as negative for AUD.

Upcoming release: Tue 03 Nov 2026 03:30

Release schedule: At irregular intervals

Market consensus: 4.85%

Prior reading: 4.6%

Data source: Reserve Bank of Australia