$77,000 support test awaits Bitcoin ahead of Fed decision

• Bitcoin has dropped 9.3% from its September 21 peak of $87,392. Its next significant support zone lies at $77,000 to $77,765.
• 669,253 BTC was the top cryptocurrency's futures open interest on October 25. The increase, despite lower prices, suggests leveraged positions continued to build during the sell-off.
• Galaxy Research called an end to the bear market, pointing to reduced selling by long-term holders and Bitcoin's rebound above its 50-week moving average.

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to $79,250 over the weekend. The leading cryptocurrency is now testing crucial support, and Bitfinex analysts say sustained selling pressure and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision are likely to extend its decline.

$77,000 support in focus for Bitcoin ahead of Fed decision

Monday's Alpha report from Bitfinex put Bitcoin's decline from its September 21 peak of $87,392 at 9.3%. This was its sharpest correction since the July cycle low.

After holding for several weeks, Bitcoin's $81,300 support also gave way. Bitfinex said this level now acts as resistance. Around 874,000 BTC held between $81,000 and $82,500 could add to selling pressure whenever prices attempt to recover.

Using large investors' cost basis and the True Market Mean, Bitfinex placed the next significant support zone at $77,000 to $77,765.

According to the exchange, an enduring rebound above $82,500 would signal an end to the current consolidation, provided renewed demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) supports the move.

The Federal Reserve’s October 28 policy decision nevertheless presents risks. Markets broadly anticipate unchanged interest rates, but the increased probability of a December rate hike could constrain appetite for riskier assets.

A further concern for Bitfinex was the absence of the usual reset in Bitcoin derivatives positioning that accompanies lasting market bottoms. Even as Bitcoin's price fell, aggregate futures open interest increased to 669,253 BTC on October 25. This suggests traders were still opening positions through the sell-off.

June marked Bitcoin bear market's end, Galaxy Digital argues

Galaxy Research sees Bitcoin entering an accumulation phase before its next potential advance. In its view, the broader BTC bear market has already finished, notwithstanding the leading cryptocurrency's recent weakness.

In Thursday's report, Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn said the case for buying and holding Bitcoin was reinforced by reduced selling pressure, stronger technical indicators and rising US government debt.

Thorn wrote: “We believe the bottom is in, selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left: these are all reasons we remain bullish on Bitcoin,”

A roughly 53% fall from the October 2025 peak made Bitcoin's latest bear market its shallowest on record, Galaxy said. By comparison, earlier bear markets saw losses of 77% to 93%.

After spending 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average, Bitcoin registered five consecutive weekly closes above it through October 18, the firm noted. Galaxy said the sustained move back above that indicator suggests a new market phase has begun.

Long-term holders have also reduced their selling. In 2026, an average of 34,000 BTC moved each month from wallets dormant for at least five years, compared with 47,000 BTC in 2025 and 67,000 BTC in 2024.

Much of the supply released by these holders was absorbed by spot ETFs and corporate Bitcoin treasury companies, Galaxy argued.

The firm nevertheless highlighted a potential challenge to its bullish view: a weekly close below $76,540 followed by an inability to regain that level within a month.

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $80,050 after a 0.2% decline over the past 24 hours.