Near $82K: Bitcoin (BTC) edges higher as Gold (XAU) tests $4,000 amid softer US S&P Services PMI

• $82,000 is in focus as Bitcoin gains momentum, supported in the short term by the 59-day EMA.
• $4,000 gives way as Gold declines under pressure from weaker momentum indicators and mounting geopolitical tensions.
• October brings a decline in the US S&P Global Services PMI to 57.9 from September’s 58.8.

$82,000 marks Bitcoin’s immediate resistance. As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches that level, it is leading broad cryptocurrency gains on Friday. Firm structural support suggests the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Should Bitcoin close above $82,000 on the daily chart, the near-term bullish case would strengthen. That would improve the prospects of a recovery towards $84,000 in the short term and $87,000 over the medium term.

By contrast, heavy selling pressure persists in Gold (XAU), although the crucial $4,000 level continues to provide support. Waning investor interest and reduced risk appetite are reflected in the metal as the Middle East faces the prospect of renewed war between the United States (US) and Iran.

October slowdown in US S&P Global Services PMI

October saw further expansion in US private-sector business activity, preliminary figures released on Friday by S&P Global showed.

At 56 in October, the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) exceeded both September’s 55.9 and the market forecast of 55.6. Services PMI, however, slowed from September’s 58.8 to 57.9, matching expectations.

Combining manufacturing and services activity, the Composite PMI slipped from 58.4 in the previous month to 57.6 in October.

Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision follows this report. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of rates remaining in the 3.75-4.00% range is near 90%. A rate increase is anticipated by only 10.5% of interest rate traders.

US economic activity has remained resilient despite the rise in Oil prices driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded above $101.00 on Friday. With market participants assigning a greater probability to a December rate increase, the outcome of Wednesday’s meeting will help determine the outlook for the remainder of the year.

In an emailed analysis report, Crypto Finance said: “The FOMC meets 27-28 October, with the decision on Wednesday, 28 October. With inflation risk still elevated but risk assets already tightening financial conditions themselves, the market will be watching closely for any shift in the Fed's reaction function,”

$81,988: Bitcoin recovery strengthens the technical outlook

At $81,988, Bitcoin is extending its rebound above a closely packed band of moving-average support, maintaining a positive near-term bias. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80,884 remains below the price. Further support for the wider bullish structure comes from the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $77,532 and $76,184.

Downside moves appear cushioned by the SuperTrend line at $79,664, well below the spot price. Momentum is less decisive: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 48 is neutral, while a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading suggests upward momentum is easing rather than gathering pace.

The first support to watch is the 50-day EMA near $80,884. A deeper retreat would bring the SuperTrend baseline around $79,664 into focus as the next technical floor. Further down, a wider demand zone is defined by the 100-day EMA at $77,532 and the 200-day EMA at $76,184. This area would need to hold to maintain the current bullish bias. Closing below that cluster on a daily basis would significantly undermine the trend and leave scope for a sharper correction.

$4,019: Gold technical outlook remains bearish

At $4,019, Gold retains a bearish near-term bias. It remains below descending trendline resistance at $4,091, with a dense band of EMAs and the SuperTrend indicator also providing overhead resistance.

Technical pressure remains strong, with the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $4,224, $4,284 and $4,287 respectively, alongside the SuperTrend line at $4,223. An RSI reading near 35 indicates weak momentum rather than an oversold washout. This leaves scope for further losses before buyers are compelled to return.

The former trendline near $4,091 now provides initial resistance. Beyond it are the SuperTrend barrier around $4,223 and the 50-day EMA at $4,224. Only a sustained recovery above these levels would put the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, grouped just below $4,290, within reach. At that point, the broader bearish structure would start to weaken.

The daily chart offers no clear structural support, suggesting any renewed decline would likely seek fresh demand zones. Meanwhile, the MACD is becoming more negative again, supporting the view that advances into the resistance band outlined above are likely to draw sellers.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)