Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC falls under pressure from Binance security breach and hawkish Fed

• Bitcoin has lost over 3% this week. Friday’s trading below $78,000 puts it on course for a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
• Risk aversion and large-scale long liquidations intensify as the Fed’s hawkish outlook combines with a security breach at Binance.
• With net inflows of $440.74 million through Thursday, US-listed spot ETFs are heading for a second consecutive week of inflows.

Bitcoin (BTC) has shed more than 3% this week. A fourth consecutive weekly decline is now in prospect for the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation. Its bearish outlook reflects the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance at the October meeting and a reported $6.3 billion hack at Binance. Together, these factors are fuelling risk aversion and substantial liquidations. 

Net inflows into spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) reached $440.74 million through Thursday, leaving the funds on course for a second consecutive positive week despite the correction. For the Crypto King, however, weakness across the wider market increases the threat of a deeper pullback.

5.83% October decline signals November risk for BTC

Below $78,000 on Friday, Bitcoin is approaching a negative close for October. Earlier in the Asian session, it touched $76,500. The Crypto King’s performance challenges the market’s “Uptober” narrative, replacing it with a “Rektober” month. 

October’s decline in the largest cryptocurrency stands at 5.83%, according to the Coinglass BTC monthly returns chart below. In 3 out of 5 historical instances when BTC finished October lower, double-digit losses followed in November. That record points to the possibility of additional downside next month.

Tighter global oil supplies could result from escalating Middle East tensions, Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, told FXStreet in an exclusive interview. He said energy-market shocks could then deepen concerns about monetary tightening by the Fed. Such developments could restrict cryptocurrency-market liquidity and leave less room for a lasting recovery.

With geopolitical uncertainty and fragile investor confidence persisting into November, Massabni expects Bitcoin to trade within a $70,000 to $80,000 range.

A durable return to the broader uptrend has no clear supporting signals at present, he added. Recovery attempts could thus prove brief, as limited confidence in a wider market rebound is likely to encourage investors to take profits quickly.

$1.53 billion liquidated after Binance security breach

Late Thursday brought a major security breach at Binance, the largest centralised cryptocurrency exchange. 

In a post on X, Binance reported: “The estimated total impact sits at around $6.3 billion. We have worked with blockchain partners to freeze affected assets, with $3 billion frozen on-chain so far. Binance will cover all losses from the Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) fund and the company’s funds. User funds are safe,” 

An initial company investigation indicates that a compromised DevOps engineer’s laptop may have been involved. This allowed an attacker to gain access to a service container and submit unauthorised withdrawal transactions.

Large-scale liquidations swept the crypto market following the incident. As the CoinGlass chart below shows, 237,149 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, taking the total value of liquidations to $1.53 billion.

At $11.09 million, the largest single liquidation order occurred on Binance’s BTCUSDT. The scale of forced position closures underscores mounting market stress and adds to this week’s downward pressure on BTC.

3.75%-4.00% Fed hold leaves hawkish pressure on BTC

Risk assets, including Bitcoin, face pressure from this week’s economic releases. Following its two-day October policy meeting, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday. The vote was not unanimous: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack were the two officials seeking a 25-basis-point (bps) increase. Chair Kevin Warsh said incoming information would guide the central bank’s assessment of whether further action was necessary.

At his press conference, Warsh said officials have “made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require, and we have shown our willingness to act.”

He added: “It’s our responsibility to get inflation down (...) That’s the reason the FOMC’s discussion over the last couple of days focused mainly on the price stability side of our remit,”

Although markets had already priced in unchanged rates, the inflation concerns and hawkish tone of the forward guidance reinforce caution. Cryptocurrencies and other risk assets remain under pressure as a result. 

Thursday’s US economic releases added evidence of resilient growth and stubborn price pressures, strengthening expectations of an imminent Fed rate increase in December.

US growth accelerated to an annualised 3.4% in the preliminary third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate, exceeding the 3.2% consensus forecast and the previous quarter’s 2.2%. Separately, the US Commerce Department reported a 0.5% September increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, bringing the year-on-year rise to 3.6%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core measure advanced 0.3% month on month and 3.1% year on year.

Alongside elevated US bond yields, these figures compound inflation concerns and bolster the case for further Fed tightening. That prospect continues to constrain risk assets such as BTC.

Middle East peace hopes offer no relief for BTC 

Bitcoin remains under bearish pressure despite a weaker US Dollar (USD). Renewed prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict have dragged on the safe-haven currency, but offered little relief to BTC.

The Guardian reported on Thursday that US Vice President JD Vance had sent a direct letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. The initiative sought to revive peace negotiations. 

A new draft proposal from Qatar was also presented to Iran to end the war involving the US and Israel. Investor caution nevertheless persists as hostilities escalate between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi group. Threats by the US and Israel to resume attacks after the US midterm elections have also sustained geopolitical risk. Separately, Iran’s navy claimed on Thursday that four oil tankers had hit sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The claim heightened supply-disruption concerns and supported oil prices.

Uncertainty remains high against this backdrop. Fears of higher oil prices continue to undermine investor sentiment, leaving limited scope for relief for the Crypto King.

$440.74 million in ETF flows offers tentative optimism

A tentative revival in institutional appetite for Bitcoin is emerging. According to SoSoValue, spot ETFs are heading for a second consecutive week of inflows, with net outflows of $440.74 million through Thursday following last week’s positive flows of $304.73 million. Continued and stronger inflows on Friday could soften BTC’s price decline and help underpin a recovery.

Corporate buying diverged last week: Strive acquired 6,182 BTC, while Strategy made no BTC purchases, Lookonchain said on its X account on Monday. After several weeks of purchases, Strategy’s pause signals a change in institutional accumulation as Strive increases its buying. Continued accumulation by Strive could absorb some selling pressure and lend support to BTC.

3% weekly decline: Bitcoin technical momentum fades

More than 3% has been lost by the Crypto King so far this week. Trading below $78,000 on Friday, it is approaching a fourth consecutive weekly correction since early October.

An extension of BTC’s pullback could bring the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75,761 into view. Should the weekly close fall below that level, further losses towards the 200-week SMA at $67,468 could follow.

On the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 51, near the neutral threshold of 50, signalling cooling bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is still positive, but its bars are shrinking. Broader upward momentum therefore remains intact, although nearby resistance and the continuing correction are eroding its strength.

A recovery, by contrast, could carry BTC towards $78,661, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199. If that level holds, the next potential destinations are the 50% retracement at $87,823 and then the 100-week SMA at $89,358.

A bearish short-term bias persists on BTC’s daily chart. Price remains above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76,426, but the 100-day EMA at $77,820 continues to cap it.

Underlying support still comes from the longer-term trend structure through the 200-day EMA. Even so, trading well below the 50-day EMA at $80,598 reinforces BTC’s corrective stance. 

At 35, the daily RSI sits just above oversold territory. The MACD also remains negative and subdued. Both indicators point to sustained downside pressure, even with long-term support close by.

Initial resistance lies near $77,820 at the 100-day EMA, ahead of the 50-day EMA around $80,598. Beyond those levels, a stronger rebound would likely face a cap at the more substantial horizontal barrier of $85,000.

Key downside support rests at the 200-day EMA of $76,426. A decisive breach would clear the way for a deeper decline. Holding above it, however, would preserve the interpretation of the current retreat as a downside correction within a broader bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)