British Pound opens BoE policy week on a positive note

Ahead of Thursday’s BoE policy announcement, the British Pound gains against its major counterparts.
A 25 bps interest rate increase to 4% is widely expected from the BoE.
Markets assign a 70-72% probability to the Democrats winning both the House and the Senate.

The British Pound (GBP) opens the week 0.3% higher against the US Dollar (USD). Trading near 1.3430, Sterling also advances against most of its currency counterparts as investors focus on Thursday’s monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England (BoE).

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Pound Sterling: Today’s Currency Performance

Today’s percentage moves in the British Pound (GBP) against the major currencies listed appear in the table below. Sterling recorded its strongest performance against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.49%	-0.27%	0.05%	-0.08%	0.10%	-0.02%	-0.58%
EUR	0.49%		0.22%	0.51%	0.40%	0.59%	0.47%	-0.06%
GBP	0.27%	-0.22%		0.32%	0.18%	0.37%	0.25%	-0.27%
JPY	-0.05%	-0.51%	-0.32%		-0.11%	0.06%	-0.06%	-0.61%
CAD	0.08%	-0.40%	-0.18%	0.11%		0.19%	0.06%	-0.46%
AUD	-0.10%	-0.59%	-0.37%	-0.06%	-0.19%		-0.12%	-0.65%
NZD	0.02%	-0.47%	-0.25%	0.06%	-0.06%	0.12%		-0.52%
CHF	0.58%	0.06%	0.27%	0.61%	0.46%	0.65%	0.52%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the British Pound on the left and following that row across to the US Dollar, for instance, gives the percentage change for GBP (base)/USD (quote) in the intersecting cell.

4.00% BoE rate expected as Sterling stays firm

Market confidence that high energy costs leave the BoE with “no alternative but to hike rates on Thursday” is supporting Sterling, according to ING analysts, who describe the currency as “trading reasonably well,” ahead of the decision. Their assessment that “a 25bp rate hike to 4.00% looks like a done deal,” underpins the positive sentiment towards the Pound.

Given financial markets’ confidence in a BoE rate increase, the voting breakdown and guidance on monetary policy might attract particular investor attention.

Ahead of Tuesday’s United States (US) midterm elections, selling pressure weighs on the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is down 0.3%, near 101.65. The index tracks the Greenback against six major currencies.

70-72% odds of Democrat sweep cloud Dollar outlook

Betting markets give the Democrats a “70-72% chance of taking both the House and the Senate.” ING’s Chris Turner identifies the US midterm elections as this week’s main event risk for FX. In his assessment, “one could make the case that the Dollar should come lower on such an outcome,” because a Democrat sweep would likely “lead to gridlock on the debt ceiling, a prolonged government shutdown next year and could encourage President Trump to pursue an even more activist foreign policy agenda.” Turner therefore suggests that investors will weigh those political risks against strong US growth, above-target inflation and continued Fed tightening, a combination that still supports the Dollar and DXY around 102.00.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook: 1.3430 in Focus

Around 1.3430 on the daily chart, GBP/USD maintains a positive near-term bias. Spot remains above both the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3366 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3138–1.3677 leg at 1.3408. Near 60, the Relative Strength Index (14) signals robust upward momentum without reaching overbought territory, supporting the bullish tone.

The first upside hurdle is 1.3471, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, followed by the 78.6% level at 1.3562. Should buyers extend the rally, the cycle peak at 1.3677 presents a more substantial barrier. Initial downside support lies at 1.3408, the 50.0% retracement, before the 9-day EMA at 1.3366 and the 38.2% level at 1.3344. A deeper retreat would bring the 23.6% retracement at 1.3265 and the structural anchor around 1.3138 into view.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Data Brief

BoE Policy Rate Announcement

At the conclusion of each of its eight scheduled annual meetings, the Bank of England (BoE) releases its interest rate decision. A rate increase accompanied by a hawkish assessment of the economy’s inflation outlook is generally positive for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Conversely, a dovish assessment of the UK economy, combined with unchanged or lower rates, is regarded as negative for GBP.

Upcoming release: Thu 5 November 2026 12:00

Release frequency: No fixed schedule

Consensus forecast: -

Prior reading: 3.75%

Data source: Bank of England