Cardano Price Forecast: Key support holds for ADA as bearish pressure builds

• $0.20 remains above Cardano’s price on Monday. Buyers are defending support at $0.1894, helping to steady the prevailing decline.
• Whale activity remains subdued, according to on-chain data, even as a jump in social dominance points to growing discussion.
• Almost 2 billion ADA remains in futures open interest, down from 2.25 billion ADA last week, signalling weaker retail demand.

$0.1894 remains the support level for Cardano (ADA). The token is consolidating above it on Monday after stabilising from a roughly 8% loss last Thursday. Despite increased social discussion of Cardano, on-chain figures indicate less activity by large-wallet investors, commonly known as whales. Retail participation has also weakened, according to derivatives data: open interest has declined from 2.25 billion ADA last week to almost 2 billion ADA.

Mounting selling pressure leaves ADA’s technical outlook tilted to the downside.

2.49% Social Dominance: Cardano Whales Pause as Retail Demand Fades

At 2.49% on Monday, Cardano’s social dominance score reaches its highest level since late June. The rise is linked to no ADA or Midnight (ADA) tokens being stolen in the Binance hack. 

Following last month’s sell-off, however, Cardano whales have paused. Holders of 10 million to 100 million account for 37.45% of circulating supply, compared with 38.03% last month, Santiment data shows. The reduction signals fading risk appetite among the largest holding cohorts. Meanwhile, the share of ADA supply in profit has fallen to 14.77% from 28.36%, suggesting a wave of profit-taking. Further cuts to whale holdings this month could deepen ADA’s 21% losses from October.

Retail backing for Cardano is also weakening. ADA futures open interest now stands at almost 2 billion ADA, against 2.25 billion ADA last week, according to CoinGlass. The decline suggests traders are exiting positions instead of adding fresh exposure.

Below $0.2000: Cardano’s Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

After losing 21% last month, Cardano remains below $0.2000 on Monday. Its position beneath the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $0.2179 and $0.2408 respectively, keeps the near-term bias bearish.

A retreat beneath the previous rising support line around $0.2019 signals a bearish reversal for the altcoin. ADA nevertheless remains above support at $0.1894, established by the August 30 low, leaving a path towards the August 18 and July 27 lows of $0.1712 and $0.1537, respectively.

On the daily chart, a Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 32 points to continued downside pressure and weak momentum. A negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading below zero accompanies that signal.

Any recovery faces initial resistance around $0.2019, where the former trendline broke, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.2179. Higher up, the 200-day EMA at $0.2408 strengthens the broader bearish ceiling.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)