Cardano Price Forecast: Weak on-chain and derivatives signals suggest further ADA downside

• Nearly 4% has been wiped off Cardano this week. The decline continues on Friday, with the token trading below $0.169.
• Bearish on-chain signals and softer derivatives metrics reinforce the continuing correction.
• Further losses remain a risk for ADA as its technical picture weakens.

Cardano (ADA) has lost nearly 4% so far this week. Trading below $0.169 on Friday, the token continues to retreat and is on course for its sixth straight weekly correction. Its decline since early October exceeds 30%. Deteriorating derivatives metrics and bearish on-chain signals indicate reduced market participation. Sellers remain in control, leaving the technical outlook exposed to further downside.

Cardano Derivatives Signal Bearish Positioning

At 0.86 on Monday, CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for ADA is close to its lowest reading in over a month. The derivatives measure points to a bearish bias in Cardano: a ratio below one signals that traders are positioning for asset prices to decline.

After turning negative on Thursday, Cardano’s funding rate stands at -0.0015% on Friday. Short positions are therefore paying long positions, another indication of a bearish outlook.

Cardano On-Chain Data Signals Caution 

Caution prevails in CryptoQuant’s summary data for Cardano. Large whale orders and heating conditions feature in both ADA’s spot and futures markets, with selling also dominant across the two. Together, these signals indicate a cautious, bearish bias among ADA traders.

$0.168 Cardano: Technical Outlook Points to Further ADA Losses

At $0.168 on Friday, Cardano retains a bearish near-term outlook. Its price sits firmly beneath the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which stand at $0.203, $0.208 and $0.229, respectively.

A Relative Strength Index (RSI) drifting towards oversold territory near 28 underscores weak momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also negative, while its histogram remains flat. This points to sustained downward pressure rather than an approaching reversal.

The horizontal barrier near $0.183 provides the first upside resistance. Beyond it lies a tight cluster of EMAs between $0.203 and $0.229, followed by further resistance levels at $0.236, $0.245 and $0.296.

The horizontal floor at $0.156 is the next significant downside support. A decisive break below it would leave Cardano vulnerable to further selling within the established downtrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)