Cardano Price Forecast: ADA correction intensifies amid whale selling

• $0.2100 is back below Cardano’s price on Friday. The token edges higher after losing nearly 6% the day before.
• Selling pressure is building as whales substantially cut their ADA holdings, according to on-chain data.
• An 11% fall in ADA Open Interest over 24 hours, alongside negative funding and increased long liquidations, points to sellers retaining control.

Nearly 2% is Cardano’s (ADA) gain on Friday. The modest advance follows a roughly 6% drop the day before. That retreat coincides with a preference for selling among large-wallet investors, known as whales, and in Cardano derivatives markets. Persistent downward momentum keeps ADA’s technical outlook bearish.

ADA Whale Holdings Continue to Shrink

37.93% of circulating ADA supply is held by wallets containing 10 million to 100 million tokens on Friday. Santiment data puts their share at 38.27% on October 10. The reduction signals waning interest in holding ADA among whales, adding to near-term selling pressure. 

A smaller proportion of circulating supply belongs to wallets with more than 100 million ADA tokens. Their share has risen to 16.04% on Friday from 15.92% over the same period. Meanwhile, the proportion of ADA supply in profit has fallen from 30.78% to 17.8%, suggesting a sudden bout of profit-taking. 

Overall, this whale activity favours selling and could constrain subsequent recovery attempts.

Cardano Futures Signal Growing Selling Bias

$464.36 million is the value of ADA futures Open Interest (OI), down 11% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. The decline points to a lower value of active positions as the spot price falls, with Cardano also losing bullish support among retail traders. When OI and spot prices fall together, it typically signals the unwinding of long positions and a reduction in leverage. Of the $1.60 million in total liquidations over the same period, longs account for $1.56 million, underscoring strong market selling pressure. 

Funding has also turned negative, with the rate reaching -0.0064%. This indicates traders are prepared to pay a premium to take short positions.

$0.20 Support in Focus: Cardano Technical Outlook

$0.2159 is Cardano’s price at the time of writing on Friday. Trading below key moving averages and its former rising support line leaves the token under downward pressure. Overhead resistance comes from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2274 and the broken rising trendline around $0.2282, limiting upside and reinforcing the bearish near-term outlook. The 200-day EMA at $0.2322 presents a higher structural hurdle.

Momentum remains weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is moving lower into negative territory, suggesting sellers continue to hold the advantage.

With the easier path still pointing downwards, immediate support lies at the $0.2000 round number. Below that, the August 30 low establishes horizontal support at $0.1894.

For buyers, the first obstacle is the 50-day EMA near $0.2274, closely followed by the reclaimed trendline at $0.2282. Together, these levels create a narrow supply zone that bulls must clear to reduce immediate downside risk. Further up, the 200-day EMA around $0.2322 represents a more substantial barrier. A sustained daily close above it would begin to weaken the prevailing bearish bias and create scope for a broader recovery.

(An AI tool assisted in preparing the technical analysis in this article. Learn more.)