Polish Zloty: PLN outlook remains weak despite hawkish rhetoric – Commerzbank

Q1 is the earliest point signalled for NBP action. Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose says Governor Adam Glapinski effectively ruled out a December rate rise despite his hawkish tone. The latest projections put inflation above target into 2027, even with tax relief. Reliance on temporary fuel-price measures could leave monetary policy too loose, Ghose warns, viewing this as negative for the Zloty.

Zloty Under Pressure as Tightening Is Delayed

"Poland’s National Bank (NBP) held its monthly post-meeting press conference yesterday, at which governor Adam Glapinski portrayed the MPC as hawkish, but his practical signal was still one of inaction. He acknowledged a “heated” discussion and said that MPC feared it might have to hike rates, but effectively ruled out December because it is traditionally a “holiday” meeting. This leaves Q1 as the earliest plausible timing for tightening."

"The new projections undermine the rationale for waiting. If the government were not to extend fuel tax cuts into 2027, CPI inflation would jump to nearly 5%y/y during Q1 and Q2. But, even if the tax relief were to be extended, inflation is still projected to exceed 3.5%y/y during H1 2027 – faster than the upper limit of NBP’s target range. Higher commodity and food prices, elevated PPI inflation and the growing risk of second-round effects reinforce this message."

"Glapinski cited softer growth, slower wage increases and October inflation returning to target as reasons for the November hold. But, October’s apparent disinflation resulted from temporary administrative fuel-price intervention, not a genuine moderation in underlying inflation. Monetary policy should not remain hostage to government decisions on fuel taxes, power tariffs and protective measures."

"The zloty is already tanking. Maintaining the monetary policy status quo because of an administered-price-driven dip in inflation will ultimately augur badly for the currency."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)